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March 27, 2008 | By Alex Eisenberg
Mid-Level to Top-10 - Who Makes the Jump?
Continuing our 2008 prospect preview series, today we focus on the mid-level prospects that I think stand an excellent chance to make the leap into their respective organization's top-10 prospects.
So we have no confusion, I am defining a mid-level prospect as a player who falls mostly into the 10 - 20 range of a team's top prospect list and who grade out to around a C+/B- on the prospect grade scale. For the players in this article, I am not predicting they will develop into one of the top 3 or 4 prospects in their respective organization (though a few could), but they will catapult themselves into the 5 - 9 range of a team's top prospect list.
With that said, lets get started.
1. Bobby Parnell, RHSP, New York Mets (A+/AA)
Age - 23
Drafted - Round 9, 2005
Basic Stats
Advanced Stats
Parnell is an interesting player. He features a low to mid-90's sinker that
generates ground balls and a slider that is good enough to miss bats,
but he has struggled to develop a change-up to complement his other
two pitches. However, he did make strides in developing the pitch last
year.
Consistency has been an issue for Parnell throughout his career. Some feel his mechanics are a little unusual and because of this he has problems repeating his delivery. Unfortunately, I don't have video of Parnell so I can't make that judgement myself. Mechanical issues are likely the main reason why Parnell's control has been below average over his career. With that said, when you compare his BB-rate from a year ago to what he put up in college, you can see how far he has come in terms of improvement.
When he was drafted coming out of Charleston Southern in 2004, his walk rate was close to 6, his hit rate was over 12 and his ERA was 6.82 and 8.86 his last two years. Last year, Parnell's BB-rate was in the mid-3's and while he is still fairly hittable, his H/9 has dropped to just over 9.
However...
Even though Parnell had a GB% of 64% in A+ St. Lucie, that percentage dropped to 47% when promoted to AA. The interesting thing is that in AA against right-handers, Parnell maintained a very good GB ratio (2.18), but against lefties Parnell actually gave up more fly balls than ground balls. This has been a trend for his career though not this extreme.
Overall, Parnell is fairly hittable. He has a high BABIP against, and this shows the need to further develop his change-up to keep hitters off his harder stuff.
Parnell has also benefitted from pitching in parks that tend to heavily favor pitchers (Hagerstown and St. Lucie). With St. Lucie, Parnell held the league homerless against him, but in a more neutral park at Binghamton, his HR rate jumped to .81.
Future Outlook
Parnell showed enough last year to project him as a potential back of the rotation starter with #3 starter upside, but with his two MLB-caliber pitches, he could have a very nice career as a high K, ground ball inducing set-up man.
2. Logan Morrison, 1b, Florida Marlins (A)
Age - 20, B - L
Drafted - Round 22, 2005
Basic Stats
Advanced Stats
Morrison performed very well for a player who played most of last year in the Sally League at the ripe young age of 19. He put up an .825 OPS, hit 24 HRs and found himself in the Sally League All-Star Game. All this after a disappointing pro debut that saw him unable to put up a .650 OPS in limited ABs in rookie and short-season ball.
Morrison shows pretty good pitch-recognition and above average power to all fields. The hope is that he increases his power as he continues to physically mature. He does strike out some (18.5% last year), but that figure doesn't strike me as a concern given his age and the fact that it isn't a particularly high K%.
Defense was a major issue for Morrison when he was drafted in 2005, but reports are that he has made major strides with his defense at first base.
Morrison has posted some pretty severe splits in his young career thus far:
2006, R/SS
vs. LHP - 38 PAs, .214 BA, .290 OBP, .214 SLG, .505 OPS
vs. RHP - 147 PAs, .248 BA, .327 OBP, .346 SLG, .673 OPS
2007, A
vs. LHP- 114 PAs, .194 BA, .248 OBP, .407 SLG, .655 OPS
vs. RHP - 396 PAs, .290 BA, .374 OBP, .506 SLG, .880 OPS
Now, beware of the small sample size, but the data does show a huge split and to be honest, I don't necessarily view this as a bad thing. Over the course of a full-season, the left handed side of a platoon is going to get close to 500 PAs against righties. It would be different if Morrison mashed lefties because he would only be useful for around 250 PAs. I would rather have a player in my minor league system that mashed righties to a tune of an .880 OPS instead of a player that hit both lefties and righties equally well to a tune of an .825 OPS.
However...
It should be noted that Morrison played in a park that is conducive for hitters and his numbers show that:
Home ISO-Power - .256
Away ISO-Power - .175
Morrison's BABIP was only .291 last year. Unlike for pitchers at the MLB level, BABIP is actually a skill-set for hitters. I like guys who can RAKE, meaning guys that make hard, consistent contact all over the field...basically the guys who can hit any pitch thrown at them. These players usually have high BABIPs. I found one potential reason for Morrison's low BABIP at Future Fish:
"When he is in a funk, Logan gets too anxious and shifts his weight to his front side. Because he couldn’t stay behind the ball, he would then hit weak grounders and lazy fly balls."
Future Outlook
I see Logan as a potentially very solid left-handed part of a first base platoon down the road. Given his age and potential development, he could grow into a possible an everyday player for the Florida Marlins.
3. Zach Phillips, LHSP, Texas Rangers (A)
Age - 21
Drafted - Round 23, 2004
Basic Stats
Advanced Stats
The Texas Rangers have a lot of promising young arms in their system right now, so perhaps that is why Phillips goes so overlooked by most. He had a dominant debut in his rookie season in 2004, but had a rough transition into low-A Clinton of the Midwest League. However, Phillips repeated the the league and improved his numbers almost across the board last year.
He saw a jump in his K-rate (7.99 to 9.32), a drop in his BB-rate (4.18 to 2.55), and a drop in H/9 (11.28 to 8.25). His GB% remained solid (55% both years) and his HR rate stayed basically the same (.32 to .36).
Phillips features a low 90's fastball that generates plenty of sink to go along with a big loopy curveball. He has a change-up that is still a work in progress. As you can see above, he has a herky-jerky wind-up that adds some deception to his average stuff.
However...
I'm not too big a fan of his arm action. He does a good job of letting the ball pick up the elbow, but he leaves some velocity sitting on the table by not loading his arm horizontally or "scap loading" as the term is called. I would also like to see him in a more athletic position during his wind-up...a little more compact with more bend in his back leg instead of being so tall on the mound.
Phillips has good control and solid command, but still gets hurt when he leaves pitches in the middle of the plate as evidenced by his .332 BABIP against. He doesn't have the oomph on his stuff to just pump it by guys.
Future Outlook
Phillips looks like a 5th starter/swing man at this point, which can still be a valuable piece to a major league club. However, his numbers have been solid across the board and he looks like he has some projection left in him. If he can improve that change-up, and perhaps see if he can get his stuff to jump up another level, Phillips could see a rise in the prospect ranks.
4. Jose Martinez, SS, St. Louis Cardinals (A+/AA)
Age - 21, B - R
Undrafted Free Agent from Venezuela
Basic Stats
Advanced Stats
Martinez really flew under the radar last year. After initially struggling in A+ Palm Beach, he was promoted to AA Springfield and put up some very sound numbers. The most intriguing thing about Martinez is the fact that he is a SS and as we all know, good hitting SS's are hard to find. He doesn't wow you with his defense, but he gets the job done and should be able to remain at the position.
Martinez doesn't have a skill set that really stands out, but he does a lot of things well. He is a high contact hitter that also displays some pop in his bat with a .172 ISO power in AA. Martinez's age (21) also gives him plenty of time left to develop as a player.
However...
There are two major concerns with Martinez. The big one being Martinez's plate discipline, or lack thereof. While Martinez is a high-contact hitter, he rarely walks. If he can't increase his BB%, he is going to have to hit for a high average on a consistent basis to be an everyday player and the jury is out on whether he can do that.
Before being promoted to AA, Martinez hit just.248 with a BABIP of just .265. The year before in low-A ball his BABIP was just .274. His LD% were virtually identical. This leads to questions of whether Martinez can make hard, consistent contact to keep his batting average at an acceptable level. Martinez had a .301 BABIP in AA and had a LD% of 23%. Can Martinez reasonably expect to maintain that LD-rate? Probably not.
Future Outlook
As of now, Martinez projects to a back-up middle infielder. However, he is young enough where he could develop into an average everyday SS at the big league level.
6. David Hernandez, RHSP, Baltimore Orioles (A+)
Age - 22, H - 6-3, W - 215
Drafted - Round 16, 2005
Basic Stats
Advanced Stats
Hernandez is a major sleeper to breakout in 2008. Overall, he misses a lot of bats, leading the Carolina League in K% (27%) among pitchers with 65 or more innings. He also displayed good control, walking just 7.4% of the batters he faced.
Hernandez features a low-mid 90's fastball, a hard slider, and a change-up to keep left handed hitters off his harder stuff.
Hernandez ended the season on an extremely impressive note. He hurled a complete game gem, striking out 18 while not walking a batter and giving up just 3 hits and 1 run. However, Hernandez had a revelation that could catapult him up the prospect rankings next season. He started throwing his change-up to right handed hitters and obviously the change in approach worked wonders.
However...
Before the change in approach, Hernandez was much too hitable against right handed batters, giving up 1.17 HR/9 against them compared to a HR rate of .72 against lefties. The hope is that his strong finish in 2007 will act as a springboard for him in 2008.
Despite Hernandez's gaudy peripherals, his ERA overall was poor at 4.95. The answer to why this was the case lie in the numbers below:
2007, None On - .209/.289/.300/.589, .293 BABIP, .43 HR/9
2007, Men On - .305/.354/.532/.886, .376 BABIP, 1.87 HR/9
That is a HUGE split. Whether these problems are mental or mechanically based is not completely unknown to me. However, there were times he appeared to rush through his delivery when in the stretch, but that is far from conclusive. Either way, this must change to continue his success as a pitcher, no matter what the role is.
He also has to get more consistent. Too often Hernandez would follow up an extremely impressive start with a dud.
Future Outlook
Hernandez could end up anywhere from a middle of the rotation starter to a power arm out of the bullpen. However, he has to become more consistent and drastically improve his performance with runners on base to reach his potential.
Other Players to Watch
Richardson has three pitches including a change-up, a pretty solid curve, and a low 90's fastball that he aggressively challenges hitters with. His control took a step back this year, but he still put up solid strikeout numbers overall. His style of pitching will probably make him more suited for a bullpen role down the line. While his overall HR/9 is low, he isn't an extreme ground ball pitcher.
Henson is regarded as an exceptional athlete and a toolsy, but very raw, player. He bounced back last year after struggling to adjust to pro ball in 2006. His plate discipline still needs work and he has to cut down on the K's, but he makes hard, consistent contact and showed pretty solid power in a pitcher's park and league. There are questions of whether he can remain at SS, but if he can stay there his value greatly increases. With the amount of raw talent he has, Henson is certainly a player to keep an eye on in 2008.
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