April 2, 2008 | By Alex Eisenberg

Homer Bailey - Ace or Talented Underachiever?

As sort of a preview to the upcoming articles about the most overrated prospects in baseball, I wanted to look at a pitcher that I tend to think talent evaluators overrate: Homer Bailey. The questions I have about Bailey are more in relation to his overall numbers and his mental make-up than about the quality of his stuff.

When he's at his best, Bailey's fastball can be electric. He can consistently pump 95, 96, and 97 mph fastballs by hitters and the pitch can have a sneaky quality to it as it explodes out of Bailey's hand.

This past year, however, Bailey saw his velocity drop and his control regress. Many blamed his regression on a groin injury he suffered on June 26th and there is evidence that this was indeed the case. However, I have video before Bailey's groin injury that suggests the explosion Bailey showed on his fastball in 2006 was not there in 2007, or at least not consistently there, nor was there much consistency of his command.

Now, we should understand the biases of using just one game to look at Bailey's stuff. Sample size is a major issue here and that concern is noted. On the left is Bailey on 6/4/07, while Bailey in the 2006 Future's Game is on the right. If any of the following clips have their timing thrown off, just refresh the browser.

Homer Bailey in 2007 Homer Bailey in 2006

Do you agree that Bailey's fastball on the left has less life on it? The mechanics Bailey displays in each clip are pretty similar, but two small differences may account for his drop in velocity:

1. Arm Action - the clips are synchronized to release:

Homer Bailey's Arm Action in 2007

I prefer Bailey's arm action in 06 because he has a better scap load, an overall smoother arm action, and a cleaner elbow rotation into release. The scap load helps a pitcher in terms of velocity by increasing arm speed, while an arm action that is smoother overall without a loss in momentum is important for both velocity and injury prevention. Bailey does have a shorter arm action in 2007, but Bailey's arm in 06 covers more distance in roughly the same amount of time than his arm in 07

2. Finish/Extension/Upper Body Tilt - the clips are again synchronized to release:

Bailey's finish in 2007 Bailey's finish in 06

See how the 06 version is more out in front, has the better upper body tilt, and therefore more extension? By achieving excellent extension, and combined with his incredibly long arms, Bailey is releasing the ball a little closer to home plate than most other pitchers are able to and because of this, as well as a more aggressive finish, Bailey's fastball becomes more explosive and jumps on the hitter much more quickly.

Bailey also has a plus curveball of the power variety in that the bottom drops out as it approaches the batter. Again, when Bailey gets excellent extension, it helps his off-speed stuff play up as well. His change-up is mostly a show-me pitch right now, but it is slowly improving to average quality.

For a guy with such electric stuff, Bailey's overall numbers don't capture that completely. The low amount of hits is a positive, and the K% of 27 in both 05 and 06 is also very good, but I think his K% should be higher given how good his stuff is. In addition, his K% was just 22.1 last year. His control and command improved dramatically in 2006, but regressed this past year. Bailey has also had a BB% of less than 10 at just one minor league level over his career. I do realize he was injured for a chunk of last year, but his numbers were not as impressive as they should have been considering the quality of his stuff.

Mental Make-Up

I normally wouldn't maket too big a deal about a pitcher's mental make-up. I view it as a plus or minus but I would like see actual talent and results before using reports on a player's mental make-up to draw opinions about a prospect. My opinion is that reports on the make-up of a player are way too subjective of a way to judge a player because nobody can get inside the head of a player to get a feel for the exact thought processes of that player.

But this report from Baseball America's Scout's View, given before the 2007 season, gives me some pause:

"I think he out thinks himself sometimes. His stuff is so overpowering . . . when I saw him the last time, he started just about every hitter out with curveballs. He’d get behind guys 2-0, 3-0—guys that are hitting eighth in the lineup—and you kind of think to yourself, ‘Why isn’t this guy just going right after these guys and do it?

He might have better stuff, but if there's one guy to be wary of in terms of will stuff exceed performance, I think this is a guy who might do it."

With all that being said, making the case for Bailey is rather simple. He is a tall, athletic pitcher with long arms and has the ability to generate tremendous arm speed. When he is on his game, he has electric stuff. There are some rough edges, but nothing that can't be smoothed out.

Future Outlook

Bailey is a still a terrific prospect. Even with his flaws, we should still point out how young he is at 21 (turning 22 in May). However, based on consistency and performance issues, to go along with questions of how well he can "pitch" and not just "throw", we should ask ourselves just how good we think Bailey will be. The potential to be a #1 starter is there, but he has much to do before reaching that level. He could easily settle in as a dominating at times, but inconsistent #3 starter, which I view as much more likely than reaching his #1 starter upside.

Grade:
9 Upside, Low/Very Low Probability
7 Mid-Level, Average Probability
5.5 Downside, Low-Average Probability

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