A Note on Luke Hochevar

The Kansas City Royals had a busy off-day yesterday, which Royals Review chronicled quite well: they placed Joakim Soria on the DL, moved Sidney Ponson to the bullpen, and called up Luke Hochevar, who will slide into the rotation and replace Ponson.

Prior to the 2008 season, I labeled Luke Hochevar one of the most overrated pitching prospects in baseball. But times are different. At the time I wrote that article, Hochevar was rated a top-50, top-75 prospect, which was something I disagreed with.

After a sub-par 2008 season, a lot of people have written Hochevar completley off and because of that, I would actually consider him under-the-radar at this point. He’s not going to live up to his No. 1 pick label, nor will he live up to that top-50 prospect billing, but there is still potential for him to be a back of the rotation starter. He isn’t going to strike out a lot of hitters, but he’ll keep the ball on the ground, though for a ground ball guy he gives up way too many homeruns. He throws strikes, but he needs to throw more quality strikes.

His ERA last season was a little inflated due to a low LOB% (left on-base percentage), which is more of a luck-based stat. Hochevar had a 62.3% LOB% last year. Around 70% is considered average. At the same time, don’t overrate his current ERA in Triple-A because his LOB% at the time of his call-up was 91.

In terms of upside, Hochevar is a potential No. 4 starter and should easily be an upgrade over Ponson in the Royals rotation unless he completely flops, of course.