Arizona Diamondbacks Top-15 Prospects of 2012

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2012 Top Prospect List Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy. Grades can be subject to change.

TO QUALIFY

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs.

Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings.

Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings.

Prospect Quick Takes

1. Trevor Bauer | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – A- … See his full report below…

2. Archie Bradley | RHP | Age – 19 | Grade – B+ … Arizona’s second first round pick has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter.

3. Tyler Skaggs | LHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B+/B … Click here for a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Skaggs…

4. Anthony Meo | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B- … An aggressive ranking for Meo, but I love his arm and his upside. Needs to find a reliable third pitch.

5. David Holmberg | LHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B- … Solid stuff, but his success is driven by his feel for pitching and his ability to throw strikes.

6. Matt Davidson | 3b | Age – 21 | Grade – B- … Biggest upside in the system in terms of bats…plate discipline needs work (a recurring theme)

7. Pat Corbin | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B- … Potential middle of the rotation starter.

8. Andrew Chafin | LHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B- … Another power from the 2011 draft class…reminds me somewhat of Rays pitcher Jake McGee…

9. Adam Eaton | OF | Age – 23 | Grade – B- … Possible top of the order hitter and everyday center fielder, but more likely, and perhaps better suited for a part time roll.

10. Wade Miley | LHP | Age – 25 | Grade – B- … Major League ready back of the rotation starter already has some innings under his belt.

11. A.J. Pollock | CF | Age – 24 | Grade – B- … He’s got some ability and seems to do most things at least average, but he doesn’t stand out to me in any such way.

12. Evan Marshall | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B- … Being a reliever only pushes him down the list, but I love his fastball-slider combination.

13. Bobby Borchering | 1b | Age – 21 | Grade – C+ … Will need to start putting up bigger numbers than he has been. His bat has to carry him. Plate discipline an issue.

14. Chris Owings | SS | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Terrific talent, but terrible plate discipline. Has to be more patient.

15. Marc Krauss | OF/1b | Age – 24 | Grade – C+ … Down year for Krauss in 2011, which is a red flag for a mostly bat-only player.

16. Fidel Pena | 2b | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Intriguing second baseman posted solid numbers down in the Pioneer League.

17. Tyler Green | RHP | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Numbers weren’t all that impressive, but he has better stuff than they indicate. He has age on his side.

HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) – Wagner Mateo (OF) | Kable Hogben (RHP) | Kyle Winkler (RHP) | Patrick Schuster (LHP) | Rossmel Perez (C) | Alfredo Marte (OF) | Chase Anderson (RHP) | John Leonard (SS) | David Nick (2b) | Socrates Brito (OF) | Ryan Wheeler (1b/3b) | David Winfree (RF) | Kevin Munson (RHP) | Keon Broxton (CF) | Justin Bianco (OF) | Bryan Woodall (RHP) | Mike Bolsinger (RHP) | Ty Linton (OF) | Michael Blake (LHP) | Michael Perez (C) | John Pedrotty (LHP) | Josh Parr (SS) | Victor Capellan (RHP) | Robby Rowland (RHP) | Taylor Siemens (LHP) | Danny Pulfer (2b) | Socrates Brito (OF) | Jesus Abreu (2b) | J.R. Bradley (RHP) | Jeff Shields (RHP) | Yazy Arbelo (1b) | Blake Perry (RHP) | Eury de la Rosa (LHP) | Yorman Garcia (CF) | Sammy de los Santos (RHP) | Jesse Darrah (RHP)

*Josh Collmenter, Joe Patterson, Juan Miranda, Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryan Shaw are no longer considered prospects based on the criteria set forth for these lists.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 60 Now | 65 Future
Curveball No. 1 – 65 | 65
Curveball No. 2 – 55 | 60
Change-Up – 55 | 60
Control – 55 | 65
Command – 55 | 60
Pitchability – 60 | 70
ETA – Mid – Late 2012
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – He’s not big, but he’s an excellent athlete.

Stuff

Fastball – An explosive pitch with a wide range of velocity. It registers anywhere from 91 and can get up to as high as 97. It has excellent late life and an abundance of movement that makes it difficult to center. The movement on the pitch is unpredictable. Sometimes it sinks, other times it moves laterally — you just never know. Some of what determines the way a pitch moves is the velocity that Bauer throws it with.

Curveball No. 1 – A true hammer curve that looks like a fastball out of Bauer’s hand. Late breaking with excellent bite. Will throw it for strikes or bury it in the dirt. Below you can see Bauer getting Cubs prospect Junior Lake chasing a high fastball, and then flummoxing him with a curveball that he could only manage a meek swing against. Notice how each pitch travels on the same plane until very late in the sequence. The fastball is on the left and the curveball is on the right:

*Credit to Minor League Baseball

Curveball No. 2 – This breaking ball is harder with a shorter break and features more lateral movement than Bauer’s hammer curveball. He doesn’t have quite the same level of command with this breaking ball.

The interesting thing with Bauer is that he can add or subtract to the velocity of both his breaking balls, so its like his arsenal is equipped with more than just four pitches.

Change-Up – An above average offering that shows quality fade and depth. Will consistently have hitters out in front because he sells it well by maintaining his arm speed.

Scouting Report

Trevor Bauer is one of the more unique pitchers in all of baseball. He stands out for his wonderful work ethic and his comprehensive workout regimen. His baseball workouts are very long-toss oriented, and he even includes it in his warm up tosses each inning. You will also see Bauer in the dugout doing random stretches or working on his delivery without a ball.

Bauer is a very intelligent individual — a computer mathematics major in fact — and this shapes his way of looking at baseball. He’s constantly exploring new ideas that help him build up arm strength and enable him to stay healthy over the long haul.

His workouts are extremely detailed and rigid, so coaches at the next level would be advised not to try and change him.

Mechanics

Bauer is probably best known for his Tim Lincecum-esque delivery. Despite its funkiness, he repeats it extremely well. He incorporates a lot of things that I personally preach. He has a very rhythmic delivery that is easy to repeat. He establishes a fast tempo. He drifts through his balance point, and allows gravity to work for him. He uses a step over move that increases his stride and kick starts an aggressive rotation of the hips.

*Credit to SportsCardRadio

My one quibble would be that he sometimes pitches uphill, particularly when he over-strides. When this happens, he winds up landing stiffly on his front leg.

Bauer’s specialty is his ability to miss bats. He struck out over 13 batters every nine innings, and accumulated an amazing 203 strikeouts in just under 137 innings of work at UCLA. That K-rate actually understates Bauer’s performance. Because he allowed so few hits for reasons mentioned earlier (fastball movement, deep repertoire of pitches, ability to change speeds), that means he faced fewer hitters. So if you look at his strikeouts as a percentage, Bauer struck out an astounding 45.5% of all batters he faced.

Bauer has no problem throwing strikes and his command is improving. However, it is still inconsistent and he can go through stretches where he struggles to hit his spots. His stuff is good enough to make up for any mistakes in location.

When Bauer does miss, he’s typically up in the zone.

Bauer is a workhorse with a rubber arm who can throw a lot of pitches and maintain his velocity in the process. However, his workload is definitely a concern. Bauer put a lot of miles on his arm at UCLA and despite his conditioning program and his propensity to pitch a lot of innings with few repercussions, the level of workload he carried is definitely a concern.

Bauer was one of the more Major League ready pitchers in the 2011 draft class and he could be the first pitcher to reach the majors from that draft class.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter.

More Likely Outcome – No. 2 starter.

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