Pat, to address a couple of your concerns.

1. I’ve collected all the video I can find of Chapman…that includes his 2009 performance at the WBC, a 2009 start in preparation for his time in the WBC, and a start from 2007.

The great thing about using Quicktime to watch Chapman’s starts (or any pitcher’s start for that matter), is that I can go pitch by pitch comparing the consistency of his release point.

2. There are two instances where I say I’ll “make things simple”. The explanation of rotational velocity and the theory about the more force applied during external rotation, the higher the injury risk. Those are different topics in and of themselves and I could write a series of articles on both topics if I chose to do so. An in-depth exploration into either topic is not something that fits in this article on Chapman

3. There are only so many graphics I can put in the article. The article is based on what I saw of Chapman as a whole. The graphics illustrate some of those points I saw of Chapman when I watched him.

The video of Chapman is out there for all to see. You can watch it and develop your own conclusions. They may be different from mine.

4. Arm slots shouldn’t change from day-to-day all that much. And in the video I saw of Chapman, his arm slot was consistently higher when he threw his breaking ball, it didn’t matter which start it was. The question you can ask however, is exactly what impact will that have on his performance as he faces higher levels of competition? Will it even make a difference and can he make the adjustment if he needs to make one?

David, that is definitely a fair point. Chapman doesn’t lay out his sample size…this is what he does say:

“By comparing the statistics of players who have left Cuba and come to the US — such as Yuniesky Betancourt, Kendry Morales and Alexei Ramirez — in terms of what they’ve done there and their subsequent accomplishments in the majors, we can get a good idea of the level of play in Cuba. The changes in their statistics suggest that the Cuban level of play is similar to the Low-A leagues here in the U.S., something like the South Atlantic or Midwest Leagues.

Allowing for that level of play, over four years at the major league level in the United States, Chapman would project out with a 10-23 won-loss record, tossing 303 strikeouts in 294.2 innings of work and an ERA around 6.66.”

If you take his translated numbers, some of his comparisons include Adam Bostick, Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, Oliver Perez, Scott Linebrink, and Carlos Hernandez.