Baltimore Orioles Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 6 – 15

ALSO SEE – Orioles Top Prospects, No’s 1 – 5

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 55 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 45 | 50
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 50 | 55
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 50 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B-

Body Type – Solid build, not a great athlete

Scouting Report

I pegged Brandon Snyder for a breakout candidate last year and sure enough, he broke out. The most pleasing aspect of last season was that he answered questions about his power (.254 ISO-power) and his lack of patience (11.6 BB%). And he continued to rake as he always has, hitting for a .343 average.

Of course, that was in Double-A Bowie. Snyder had a much more difficult time in Triple-A Norfolk. His power dropped off and his plate discipline regressed a little as well.

Snyder would be much more of a sure thing if he was able to play third base. However, at first base he lacks the prototypical power you typically see at the position. Snyder figures to hit for a good average to go along with 15 – 25 home runs, and a lot of doubles.

He’s got a very clean swing with good bat speed. He uses the entire field and his hand-eye coordination allows him to center the ball with ease. Snyder gets himself out at times when he’s too aggressive, but he’s cut back some and his ability to recognize pitches has improved as well.

Snyder has made strides defensively, showing only so-so range, but good hands and footwork around the bag.

Best Case Outcome – Slightly above average everyday first baseman

More Likely Outcome – Average everyday first baseman

Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 55 Future
Slider – 55 | 55
Change-Up – 45 | 50
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 45 | 50
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – B-

Body Type – Very athletic and lean build

Stuff

Fastball – Typically sits in the 92 – 94 range, but his velocity fluctuates. The pitch has good life, but it’s straight and it gets hit when he leaves it up in the zone. Erbe has added a two-seamer that gives the pitch a bit more movement

Slider – Inconsistent, but it has a solid two-plane break and it comes out of his hand looking like a fastball…struggles to command it at times

Change-Up – Improved over the course of last season and has become a useable third pitch

Scouting Report

Brandon Erbe has always been a big mystery to me. He’s wildly inconsistent. Every year, he’ll have a few dominant starts where he gives up very few hits, racks up the Ks, and doesn’t even walk a batter. And then he’ll follow it up by getting chased after the second inning. You never know what you’re going to get.

Erbe had a relatively down year in 2009. He was coming off his second run through the Carolina League. On his first run through, he ended the season with a 6.34 ERA, but his peripherals actually weren’t bad. The culprit was a handful of just awful, awful starts.

So Erbe repeated the Carolina League and threw really well. Missed bats at a pretty good rate, lowered his walk percentage, and certainly earned his promotion to Double-A.

However, shoulder tendonitis kept Erbe sidelined for two months and he only accumulated 73 innings in Double-A. His strikeout and walk components at the end of the season nearly mirrored each other. He walked 11.4% of the hitters he faced in both seasons, while he struck out 20.3% of all hitters in Bowie and 20.4% of all hitters faced in Frederick.

In typical Erbe fashion, he somehow had a BABIP against of .204, which partly explains the huge difference in ERA. Why Erbe is so inconsistent we don’t know, but we do know what it is that Erbe struggles with: fastball command.

I’ve seen more video of Erbe recently that has given me a better look at his mechanics and I’ve never picked up on how unusual Erbe’s arm action is. He brings his arm back toward first base, but the path the forearm takes to vertical has it pointed toward third base. The path the forearm usually takes to get to its vertical position has it pointed in the direction of second base. I’m not sure if I’m explaining this well, so a graphic hopefully will clear this up:

*Credit to David Pratt

Because of Erbe’s lack of consistency and high effort/unique mechanics, I see him as a better fit for the bullpen.

Best Case Outcome – No. 3 starter

More Likely Outcome – Power arm out of the bullpen

Brief Rundown on Prospects 8 – 15

8. Kam Mickolio | RHP | Grade – B- – Two plus pitches, but will have to fix command issuesf

9. Cameron Coffey | LHP | Grade – C+ – He’s a risky prospect coming off Tommy John surgery, but he’s a high upside pitcher that scouts were very high on before he went down with an injury

10. Caleb Joseph | C | Grade – C+ – Solid, but unspectacular catching prospect looks more like a part time player than a full time regular

11. Ryan Berry | RHP | Grade – C+ – Durability is an issue, but he has excellent control and a plus breaking ball…I like him better out of the bullpen

12. Randy Henry | RHP | Grade – C+ – Another pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, reports of his progress have been encouraging and I like the potential of his breaking ball

13. Luis Lebron | RHP | Grade – C+ – Command is a huge issue, but I love the tremendous ability to miss bats

14. Brandon Waring | 3b/1b | Grade – C+ – One of the best power hitters in an organization that lacks them…needs to cut down on the strike outs

15. Ashur Tolliver | LHP | Grade – C+ – Another high upside arm selected in the 2009 draft

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Other C+ Prospects

16. Mychal Givens | SS | Age – 19 – I liked him a lot more as a pitcher because of mid 90′s fastball, but he’s intriguing as a shortstop given his raw talent and athletic ability

HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) – Xavier Avery (CF) | Bobby Bundy (RHP) | Pedro Florimon Jr. (SS) | Troy Patton (LHP) | Chorye Spoone (RHP) | L.J. Hoes (2b) | Jacob Cowan (RHP) | Aaron Wirsch (LHP) | Rhyne Hughes (1b) | Brandon Cooney (RHP) | Matt Angle (CF) | Billy Rowell (OF) | Wilfredo Perez (LHP) | Michael Ohlman (C) | Jesse Beal (RHP) | Oliver Drake (RHP) | Tyler Henson (INF) | Pat Egan (RHP) | Jarret Martin (LHP) | Rick Zagone (LHP) | Justin Turner (UTI) | Cole McCurry (LHP) | Eddie Gamboa (RHP) | Pedro Beato (RHP) | Tyler Townsend (1b)

ALSO SEE – Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects, No’s 1 – 5

UP NEXT – Boston Red Sox Top Prospects, No’s 1 – 5

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits