Baltimore Orioles Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Orioles Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 55 Future
Slider – 50/55 | 55
Curveball – 60/55 | 60/55
Change-Up – 55 | 60/65
Control – 55 | 60
Command – 55 | 60
Pitchability – 65 | 70
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – Lean and pretty athletic

Stuff

Fastball – Sits in the 89 – 93 range, touching 94…has good late life and some movement, though at other times it can be fairly straight. Matusz commands the pitch well, but he’ll occasionally have bouts where he loses the strike zone.

Curveball – A true 12-to-6 version clocked in the mid-70′s…another pitch he commands well and can throw for strikes. Rates between above average to plus most of the time, but he has to be careful not to hang it

Slider – Low 80′s pitch has a two-plane break, moving across the plate from left-to-right. Effective against both lefties and righties. Doesn’t really throw the pitch for strikes, but he commands it well. He’s shown an ability to backdoor the pitch…will sometimes slurve out on Matusz…pitch is most effective when the break is harder and sharper….probably his most inconsistent pitch

Change-Up – Rates anywhere between above average to a little better than plus…does an excellent job of maintaining his arm speed when throwing the low 80′s pitch…good fading action.

Below we see examples of all four pitches. Going in a clockwise direction is the fastball (91 mph), change-up (81 mph), curveball (75 mph), and slider (82 mph). The fastball is a typical Matusz pitch, in on Derek Jeter’s hands. The change-up is more of an average version of the one Matusz throws and not the best Matusz has to offer, while the curveball and slider are examples of the best Matusz has to offer in respect to those two pitches:

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Scouting Report

It’s truly a joy to watch Brian Matusz pitch. I admit I was skeptical after he was drafted, but that was before I got a chance to watch him on an extended basis. So he doesn’t have a plus fastball to work with. I’ll get over it.

Matusz’ repertoire is deep, he commands all his pitches well, and he knows how to use them. He understands how to mix and match his pitches, hit different spots of the strike zone…essentially the basic tenants of keeping Major League hitters off balance.

One of the things that makes Matusz so tough to hit is that all his pitches come from the same arm slot and three of them travel on essentially the same trajectory, while the fourth one (the curveball) still comes out of his hand looking like a fastball.

Because of Matusz’ advanced secondary stuff, he was much too advanced for minor league hitters. The one area he needed to work on was pitching off his fastball. In college, he would often pitch backwards and that style of pitching doesn’t translate well to the Majors. Big league hitters won’t swing at off-speed stuff unless they absolutely have to. So being able to pitch off his fastball was a key focal point for Matusz and it’s an adjustment he’s been able to make pretty seamlessly.

Matusz has a herky-jerky delivery and it’s not particularly pretty. However, he repeats it well and it gives him some deception because he hides the ball. His arm is a little late, but he has the arm speed to where that lateness makes for excellent timing. As for injury risk, despite this “late” arm action, Matusz doesn’t really put that much torque on his elbow during external rotation. I don’t see him as a big injury risk though sometimes you never know with pitchers.

Matusz will start 2010 in Baltimore’s starting rotation and should be a staple there for years to come.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – Strong No. 2 starter

Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 55 Future
Power – 55 | 60/65
Discipline – 50 | 55/60
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 50 | 55
Arm – 65 | 65
Instincts – 55 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B+/B

Body Type – Still has a big body, but he’s lost a lot of weight over the past year or so

Scouting Report

Josh Bell was traded to the Orioles along with RHP Steve Johnson (later claimed by San Franicisco in the Rule 5 draft) for then-Orioles closer George Sherril.

The Orioles see Bell as their third baseman of the future. The fact that Bell is no longer being discussed as a possible candidate to move off the position is a testament to the amount of work he’s put in at third base and the work he’s done to improve his mobility and range. The weight he’s lost has helped Bell improve his overall actions and agility at the hot corner and now his defense is actually praised.

Bell is a switch hitter who is a natural right hander, which is surprising because his splits suggest something completely different. Here they are:

vs. RHP – .340/.419/.625/1.044, 61.5 GB%, 13.5 LD%
vs. LHP – .198/.280/.267/.547, 38.7 GB%, 20.2 LD%

Bell rakes against right handers. He can catch up to — and rip — fastballs in on his hands down the right field line as well as drive pitches the other way, out of the yard. Bell can also golf pitches down in the zone, which you can see below. The way to attack him is on the down on the outside corner and with soft stuff away, where you can get him off balance and out in front.

*Credit to dmhmt

Bell has plus-plus bat speed from the left hand side of the plate and the best way to neutralize that is to get him off balance. Bell will sometimes start leaking and leaning in to better get to the outside corner as pitchers continue to pitch him away, which gives them an opportunity to jam him inside.

From the right side, it’s hard to see exactly why Bell did as bad as he did, but part of it might be that he doesn’t keep his hands back as well as he does from the left side, leading to a drop off in power. Another theory is that the bat head doesn’t stay in the hitting zone long enough from the right hand side, leading to less contact.

Bell’s struggles from the right hand side lead some to suggest that Bell should give up switch hitting all together and focus exclusively on the left-hand side of the plate. That won’t be a bad idea if he has another year like he had in 2009. But for now, he’ll continue to be a switch hitter.

Bell will start the season in Triple-A Norfolk. Miguel Tejada is the current placeholder for the Orioles at third base, but he’s only signed for one year.

Best Case Outcome – Borderline All Star third baseman

More Likely Outcome – Above average third baseman

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Zach Britton | LHP | Grade – B – Extreme ground ball pitcher broke out last season

4. Jake Arrieta | RHP | Grade – B – Britton and Arrieta are essentially interchangeable in my view, but I put Britton at No. 3 because I see him as the more likely candidate to remain a starter

5. Matt Hobgood | RHP | Grade – B- – The club’s 1st round pick in 2009, he should be a durable workhorse starter when all is said and done

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UP NEXT – Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits