Boston Red Sox Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 1 – 4
For an overview of the process used to grade players, the factors used to determine where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the start of the season. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me or you can make a comment below at the bottom of the page.
You can find a full listing of each team’s top prospect list in the Top Prospect List Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team’s best fan sites. Today, we look at the Boston Red Sox…
Also See: Boston Red Sox, Prospects 5 – 15
1. Lars Anderson | 1b | B – L | Double-A Portland | Age – 21 | Drafted – Round 18, 2006
Player Grades
Contact – 40 Now | 50/55 Future
Power – 45 | 55
Discipline – 50 | 60
Speed – 35 | 35
Defense – 55 | 55
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 55 | 60
Final Grade – B+
Body Type – Big and strong…more athletic than most first baseman
Scouting Report
Anderson’s power isn’t elite yet, but it has the potential to get there. He’s always showed the ability to make hard contact and many scouts note the ball makes a different sound off his bat. He’s also adept at using the entire field and many are waiting –and anticipating– his pull power will be soon to come.
One issue facing Anderson is the tendency of his batted balls to have a low trajectory coming off the bat. A player Anderson if often compared to is Mark Teixera and I want to contrast the two.
One reason Teixeira rates as an elite power hitter is because of his ability to put the ball in the air. I can’t stress how important it is for a power hitter to hit the ball in the air. Let’s take last season for example.
Teixeira – .244 ISO-power, FB% of 41, HR/FB% of 18.5, meaning 18.5% of his fly balls became homeruns.
*Anderson – .179 ISO-power (park-adjusted it’s .169), FB% of just 28.2, and a HR/FB% of 15.3.
*Numbers are over the course of his professional career in which about a third of his ABs came in the tiny park of Lancaster
The difference between the two is largely centered on the difference in FB%. Now, to compare each player’s swing (Anderson is on the left):
*Credit to MLB Advanced Media and Pacific Prospect Report
Keep in mind the Teixeira video is of a higher quality…Anderson is not actually starting his swing significantly later than Teixeira.
You’ll notice the tremendous torque in Teixera’s swing — the bend in the back leg, the slant of his shoulders, and the ability to keep his weight back as long as possible. The slanting of his shoulders is important because the trajectory of the bat head is moving upwards at contact. It’s not too upper-cutty of a swing, but it applies lift to the ball when contact is made.
With Anderson, when the bat head comes through the zone, he is often making contact as the bat is coming through on a more linear or even downward trajectory. This often happens when the players gets a little too far out in front. He needs to work on staying back, waiting on the ball and then unloading. The contact he makes is still hard, but the ball is simply lower to the ground when it comes off the bat.
The natural talent is there for Anderson, but he’ll need to make a few adjustments to take his game to the next level.
Other Notes – Anderson’s mental make-up, smarts, and work ethic are widely praised and he gives the Red Sox more value than the average first baseman because of his plus glove at first base. He also possesses an advanced level of plate discipline.
Best Case Outcome – Borderline all-star at first base
More Likely Outcome – Above average first baseman
2. Michael Bowden | RHP | Pawtucket (AAA) | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 1A (47), 2005
Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 50 Future
Curveball – 55 | 55
Change-Up – 50 | 55
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 50 | 50
Pitchability – 55 | 60
Final Grade – B
Body Type – Muscular build with a strong lower body
Stuff
Fastball – Sits between 89 and 93…tough to center the ball against and commands the pitch well
Curveball – A 12-to-6 version, but not really the slow, loopy kind…will subtract speed to give the pitch a bigger (but slower) break at times…given his over-the-top release point, the pitch comes in on a similar plane as the fastball and he commands the pitch well. Below is an example of his curveball. The pitch was one of the better one’s he threw in this particular start:
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
Change-Up – Circle change helps Bowden get lefties out at the same rate as righties…shows good feel for the pitch and it’s improved dramatically since being drafted.
Scouting Report
Bowden doesn’t have elite stuff, but his plus make-up and above average to plus command help Bowden’s stuff play up. He commands his pitches to both sides of the plate and he doesn’t show any fear coming inside to lefties. When he tires, Bowden will start leaving pitches up in the zone.
Mechanically, Bowden is a bit awkward, but he repeats his delivery and doesn’t have a history of injury. He’s also a good athlete, which helps in injury prevention.
Bowden is a fly ball pitcher and has a propensity to throw a lot of infield flies, which are almost as good as a strikeout. Higher home run rates will accompany Bowden at higher levels, but he’ll also have a lower BABIP than his peers. BABIP is mostly a luck stat, but there are some pitchers that do possess an ability to keep those rates fairly low and fly ball pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs.
Best Case Outcome – No. 3 starter
More Likely Outcome – Borderline No. 3 or Strong No. 4
3. Daniel Bard | RHP | Double-A Portland | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 1 (28), 2006
Player Grades
Fastball – 60 Now | 65 Future
Slider – 60 | 60
Curveball – 40 | 45
Change-Up – 35 | 40
Control – 45 | 50
Command – 50 | 55
Pitchability – 50 | 55
Final Grade – B
Body Type – Tall and athletic
Stuff
Fastball – Mid-upper 90’s, tremendous life…plenty of movement. The pitch itself is phenomenal, but can he command it? That’s what prevents it from being a true 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale.
Slider – Late, two plane break with plenty of bite…somewhat slurvy at times…complements his fastball well…shows the ability to back door the pitch against lefties.
Bard also has a curveball and a change-up, with the curveball being more a show-me pitch. He doesn’t use either pitch all that much out of the bullpen.
Essentially, all his pitches have a ton of natural movement and they all come in on a similar plane. Combine that with solid command –usually– and you see why his numbers are so dominant.
Of course, things weren’t always this way for Bard. His 2007 season was disastrous, walking over 20% of the batters he faced and striking out just over 11%. His ERA was 6.39 in Single-A Greenville and 10.13 in A+ Lancaster. As typically happens, Bard’s issues were at first mechanically based. However, his struggles started to effect him mentally to the point he lost his confidence. Everything went downhill from there. It wasn’t till he reported to Hawaii for Winter Ball that he went to the video room, saw himself on tape, and began to make the changes necessary to get him back to the pitcher he once was.
Bard lowered his arm slot, which added to the movement of his pitches. Bard also was able to keep his head straight and in line with home plate. When he used an over-the-top arm slot, his head would tilt because the arm needs room to come through (see what Bowden does above). This made it much more difficult for Bard to throw strikes.
Below is an excellent shot of Bard loading the scapula, an essential ingredient in pitchers being able to generate high velocities.
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
Notice as the arm reaches that “L” position, Bard is pinching the shoulder blades together. He’s loading the arm and stretching all these elastic muscles and tendons in the shoulder region. As the torso is uncoiled forward, the power is transferred from the torso to the shoulder and the result is a very loose, whip-like arm action. Does scapula loading increase stress on the shoulder? It might…but again, from a velocity stand point, it’s crucial.
By the Numbers
Bard’s lone drawback last year was his control, specifically towards the end of the season. In Portland, he walked 12.3% of the batters he faced, but his dominance in other areas — particularly in missing bats (43.8% in Greeneville, 31.5 K% in Portland), generating ground balls (GB% of 67, 60), limiting hard contact (.240 BABIP, .255) — more than made up for those problems in control.
Best Case Outcome – Elite reliever…he’ll best be used as a multi-inning reliever, pitching anywhere from 80 – 100 innings a year.
More Likely Outcome - Good set-up man..his iffy control could prevent him from become that elite-level reliever.
4. Josh Reddick | B – L | RF/CF | Portland (AA) | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 17, 2006
Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 45 | 55
Discipline – 40 | 45
Speed – 50/55 | 50/55
Defense – 55| 55
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 45 | 55
Final Grade – B
Body Type – Skinny and lanky, but athletic…there is some room to fill out, but he has trouble putting on weight.
Scouting Report
Very good bat speed…strong and quick wrists…has a wiry-type strength in that he’s not a big guy, but he’s blessed with these fast-twitch muscle fibers that allow him to hit the ball a long way despite his size.
Reddick is a see-the-ball, hit-the-ball sorta player. He’s going to find a pitch he can handle and swing. He’s not going to really work the count. Lucky for him, Reddick possess terrific hand-eye coordination that allows him to make consistent contact. There are times he can get overaggressive and you can get him out by giving him a steady diet of breaking balls and by changing his eye level.
Reddick’s swing is more of a sweeping variety. He starts very tall. As he steps into foot plant, the bat sweeps across the strike zone. The path his bat takes is long, but he lets the ball travel deep into his hitting zone. When faced with a pitch down and in, Reddick’s front leg locks and he rolls over his front foot, which allows him to still drive balls down-and-in.
The Red Sox are working with him to become a more patient player, but he’s not taking to it well. As he notes in this interview, he’s struggled with the adjustments of becoming a more patient player and his average dropped in the process.
Other Notes – Reddick has above average speed, a strong arm, and plays both center and right field. He’ll have more value if he can play center field full time, but he might end up being a player that moves back-and-forth from each position.
Best Case Outcome – Top-7 center fielder or a top-12 right fielder
More Likely Outcome – Slightly above average center fielder or a slightly below average right fielder…worst case outcome is a fourth outfielder.
*Edited on 1/8/09 – I orginally had Tazawa at No. 5, but I’ve reconsidered and will rank him at No. 6. The spot will be filled by Nick Hagadone and you can see all of those scouting reports in part 2.
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Next Up: Boston Red Sox, Prospects 5 – 15
Also See: Boston Red Sox Team Page
References used for this article: First Inning and Minor League Splits
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