Breaking Down Lance Berkman to the Yankees

ALSO SEE – A rundown of the key trades before Saturday’s trade deadline…

My first reaction to this deal was, that’s it? But is it possible I perceived Lance Berkman’s value to be higher than it actually was?

I got a request from Lisa Gray of the Astros Dugout to see if there was anything off with Lance Berkman’s swing. I couldn’t find anything substantially different when comparing his swings from 2008, 2009, and 2010 — and that’s what I suspected I would find when I first began my research. Typically you find significant changes to one’s mechanics only in players that have tanked, where you can rule out just a random deviation from performance or simple bad luck. The performance of these struggling players suggest something has gone seriously wrong, whether it be health, mechanics, or both.

In Berkman’s case, while his numbers are down, they aren’t so significantly different from prior years where I would suspect his mechanics to be the actual source of his problems. Rather, to me, the signs more point to a player simply in decline. Berkman is 34 years old now, which is a dangerous age for any hitter. His reaction time and bat have both slowed, which has resulted in a drop off in production across the board.

Still, it’s worth noting that Berkman is capable of going on a hot streak before season’s end. He’s been relatively steady all season and hasn’t gotten on a roll yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if Berkman starts showing flashes of his old self at some point this season. But even if he doesn’t, Berkman will still give the Yankees a hitter who gets on base at a very high clip, essentially replacing the production they expected out of Nick Johnson before he went down to injury.

In return for Berkman, the Astros get an MLB-ready reliever in Mark Melancon. He possesses good velocity on his fastball and an above average curveball to go along with impressive control/command. He’s able to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, but he has yet to figure things out at the MLB level. It’s worth mentioning, however, that Melancon hasn’t exactly been given much of a chance to prove his worth to begin with.

The Astros also get back in the deal Jimmy Paredes. He’s a second baseman that some feel is better suited for center field. At the plate, he’s raw. He doesn’t walk and he’s seen his contact rate drop this year. He’s not particularly young for his level, so he needs to speed up the rate of his development. Nevertheless, in Paredes, the Astros do add another athlete to their system that they’ll try to mold into a productive player.

The Yankees also acquired Kerry Woods for a player to be named later or cash. Wood has had a down year, but he gives the Yankees another power arm out of the bullpen and possible insurance in case Joba Chamberlain continues to struggle.