Cincinnati Reds Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Reds Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

If you need to reach me in any way, please contact me via e-mail or post a comment at the bottom of the page and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible. The first two prospects are available for everybody to read.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 65 Now | 75 Future
Slider – 55 | 60
Curveball – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 45 | 55
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 45 | 60
Pitchability – 40 | 50
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – A-

I compiled a scouting report on Aroldis Chapman earlier in the off-season, which you can read here.

I don’t have too much to add, but I’ll say I’m very impressed with how Chapman has looked this Spring. No inconsistent velocity has been reported. He’s been consistently repeating his mechanics and throwing strikes at a good rate. Reports on his change-up have been positive so far. I’d be very pleased if I were a Reds fan right now.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter, which is what I stated before

More Likely Outcome – Elite closer out of the bullpen, though I’ll add the chance of him staying a starter is higher than I what I thought earlier in the year

Player Grades
Contact – 55 Now | 60 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 55 | 60
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 50 | 50
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 55 | 60
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B

See more on Yonder Alonso by clicking here

Body Type – Thick and stocky build

Scouting Report

Alonso is a professional hitter with a good approach at the plate along with solid pitch recognition. He gets fooled every now and again, but he’s shown an ability to adjust to breaking balls in mid-air.

Alonso probably had a better season in 2009 than his overall numbers indicate. He got on base by working the count and still managed to maintain a high contact rate. His LD% was an excellent 27 percent and he consistently put the ball in the air.

However, his power numbers were a little disappointing, posting a .175 ISO-power across multiple levels. But dig a little deeper into his numbers and we see some bad luck emerge. On ground balls, his BABIP was .157, while on fly balls it was .117. Both were well below the average rate, and I’d expect both to rise next year.

All that being said, if Alonso has one thing to really work on, it’s his performance against lefties. He didn’t hit them well in college and he did nothing to prove he could hit them last year. The big problem is that he opens up too soon against them and struggles to keep himself from swinging at breaking balls from left handed pitchers — it doesn’t seem like he see’s the ball very well out of their hand.

Overall, Alonso has good plate coverage and power to all fields. He possesses good bat speed and gets tremendous leverage in his swing. While Alonso has an uppercut in his swing, he still keeps the bat head in the hitting zone for a good length of time.

Alonso has average range at first base and good hands.

Once the Reds see Alonso as being Major League ready, expect to see Votto shifted to the left field to make room for Alonso. Another option would be to offer Alonso up as trade bait.

Best Case Outcome – Above average first baseman

More Likely Outcome – Average everyday first baseman

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Todd Frazier | 2b/3b | Grade – B – A solid all around player who can play at multiple positions…click here or click here for more on Frazier

4. Mike Leake | RHP | Grade – B – Doesn’t have huge upside, but he’s smart, his repertoire is deep, and he throws strikes

5. Chris Heisey | OF | Grade – B/B- – Gets the most out of his ability…could be an everyday player, but I really like him in the fourth outfielder’s role…click here or click here for a more extensive look at Heisey

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UP NEXT – Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits