Dan Haren to the Angels: Trade Breakdown

The Angels acquired Dan Haren from the Diamondbacks for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a player to be named, likely to be left hander Tyler Skaggs. On the surface, the trade looks like a clear win for the Angels.

Haren may be having a down year from an ERA-standpoint, but we know ERA doesn’t have all that great a predictive value going forward. More importantly, we need to look at what a pitcher can control, specifically the number of bats he misses and the number of free passes he allows. Haren is striking out nine batters per nine innings, which would be a career-high if the season ended today. He’s also walking just 1.85 batters per nine innings, which is pretty much the norm for Haren.

Haren has had trouble with the long ball in the past, and it’s been even more prevalent in 2010. However, an unsustainable number of fly balls allowed by Haren have turned into a home runs, so I’d expect that number to fall. Haren also has had an unfortunate number of balls in play not turn into outs this year despite a line drive rate that is consistent to his prior two years of pitching.

While he is switching to the more difficult of the two leagues, he’s also getting out of one of the worst pitcher’s parks in Major League baseball. Now he’s headed to a relatively neutral, slightly more pitching friendly ball park with the Angels. And while Texas plays in a very hitter-friendly stadium, Seattle and Oakland both have ballparks that favor pitchers heavily.

Not only do the Angels get Haren for this year, but they also get him for next year and have a team option for the year after that. So what did the Diamondbacks get for their star pitcher?

Joe Saunders | LHP | MLB | Age – 29

If the Diamondbacks were intent on slashing Haren’s salary from their payroll, they didn’t help themselves by picking up Saunders, who is slated to receive around $6 million in arbitration next year.

As a pitcher, Saunders is pretty bleh…despite poor peripherals, he manages to put up an acceptable ERA for a back of the rotation starter. His fielding independent numbers have declined over the past couple years and he’s an unlucky season away from being a drain on a Major League team’s starting rotation.

Patrick Corbin | LHP | A+ Rancho Cucamonga | Age – 21

I like Corbin…rated him as the 19th best prospect in the Angels organization heading into the season. Here was my comment on him at the time…

A definite sleeper for next season…could improve his average fastball velocity by filling out his projectable frame..already has good control and change-up profiles as a potential plus pitch (his arm action is conducive for a good change-up)…breaking ball has improved, but needs to throw it for strikes…

This year has been a major success for Corbin. After a promotion to Rancho Cucamonga, he actually managed to improve on his in-season numbers. He walked a few more batters, but his K% increased by seven points. Not only has he been missing bats at a strong rate, he’s done a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground as well.

Corbin isn’t a top level prospect, but he’s a good one with a middle of the rotation upside.

Tyler Skaggs | LHP | Age – 19 | Single-A Cedar Rapids

I’m a big fan of Skaggs. You can see the write up I did prior to last year’s draft. He has some issues to work on — mechanical consistency and command within the strike zone, for instance — but he’s athletic, extremely projectable, misses bats at a high rate, throws strikes, and he’s doing it as one of the youngest players in his league.

He’s similar to Corbin except he’s younger, has stuff that grades out as a tick better, and he’s the more projectable of the two.

Rafael Rodriguez | RHP | Age – 25 | Triple-A Salt Lake

Rodriguez is mostly a throw-in to this deal. He doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t have plus control to make up for it. He does get ground balls at a pretty good rate though his GB% has dropped this year. He spent 30 innings in Los Angeles’ bullpen last year with sub-par results.

Bottom Line

The addition of Skaggs makes the trade more tolerable than before. And while I like both Corbin and Skaggs considerably, it’s an awfully big risk to take when you’re counting on two pitchers with less than a year’s worth of pro ball experience, neither of whom have made it further than A+ ball, to make this deal a winner from your ball club’s perspective. You have to have a lot of faith in the scouts who graded these players and in your organization’s ability to develop pitching talent. However, being able to project what a pitcher will do one year from now is a difficult task. Projecting what a pitcher will be three years from now is a near impossible one, and that is what the Diamondbacks are essentially doing with Skaggs and Corbin.

Los Angeles hopes they have added a top of the line starter to their starting rotation at an affordable cost for the next 2.5 years, while Arizona will be banking on Skaggs and Corbin to become at least middle of the rotation starters that will serve in the team’s starting rotation for a number of years at a very low cost. If things go just right, Skaggs may be able to push his ability a little further than that middle of the rotation projection though it is a long shot for that to happen.

While Arizona may come out alright in the end, it’s hard to fathom how they couldn’t have gotten either an extra piece in this deal — like a Tyler Chatwood or Garrett Richards — or at least gotten a better offer from some other contender.

Different Perspectives

Here are some of the fan reactions to this trade: