Houston Astros Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 6 – 15
For an overview of the process used to grade players, the factors used to determine where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the start of the season. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me or you can make a comment below at the bottom of the page.
You can find a full listing of each team’s top prospect list in the Top Prospect List Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team’s best fan sites. We round out the Houston Astros farm system…
Also See: Houston Astros, Prospects 1 – 5
6. Ross Seaton | RHP | Greeneville (Rookie) | Age – 18 | Drafted – Round 3, 2008
Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 60 Future
Curveball – 45 | 55
Change-Up – 40 | 45
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 40 | 55
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – 2013
Final Grade – B-
Body Type – tall, very projectable
Stuff
Fastball – sits in the low 90′s with life and the potential for more velocity
Curveball – I’ve seen the pitch described as a slider, but his draft video showed him throwing a slurvy pitch in the mid-upper 70′s with pretty good bite
Change-Up – hardly throws it and is presently below average…should improve once he gets more experience throwing the pitch
Scouting Report
Seaton has all of four innings of professional experience…I would like to see some more data before rating him higher, but he does have very good potential.
Seaton has pretty good control and is able place his pitches in and around the strike zone. He has to work on his overall command, however, and be able to place his pitches in spots.
*Credit to the MLB Scouting Bureau
I think his front side mechanics are pretty mediocre and usually poor front side mechanics are a cause of poor control. However, it goes to show you how important it is to be athletic and to be able to repeat your delivery. He does “firm” the glove up and he doesn’t pull it aggressively into his hip, but he doesn’t keep it out in front of his chest. Rather, he drops it down to the side, which makes it more difficult for him to keep his front shoulder from flying open too soon.
Still, it doesn’t appear he has too many problems with his control, so it doesn’t concern me too much right now, though I also think proper front side mechanics are better for injury prevention.
Best Case Outcome – No. 2 starter
More Likely Outcome – Too soon to say, but he’s more likely a No. 3 or 4 starter
7. Chris Johnson | 3b | Triple-A Round Rock | Age – 24 | Drafted – Round 4, 2006
Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 50 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 45 | 50
Speed – 40 | 40
Defense – 50 | 50
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 55 | 55
ETA – Late 2009
Final Grade – C+
Body Type – big and strong
Scouting Report
Johnson had a breakthrough season last year. It came just in the nick of time as his prospect status was on life support entering the season.
Johnson used excellent bat control last season to spray line drives all over the field. His .370 BABIP indicates he was somewhat lucky, but he certainly showed the potential to hit for average.
In addition, Johnson’s power output spiked up, but it doesn’t project to be anything more than slightly above average.
Johnson’s bat profiles much better up the middle, but because he’s limited to third base, I’m not sure he has the bat to take on the position full time. One thing that he did not improve upon last season was his plate discipline. He still doesn’t walk much and his strikeouts, while not “red flag” high, aren’t low enough to make me comfortable since he will have to hit for average to maintain a respectable OBP.
Best Case Outcome – Slightly below average everyday third baseman…the right hand side of a third base platoon–and yes, I understand he’s right handed but his splits show an extreme difference in performance:
Since 2006
vs. LHP – .226/.257/.323/.580
vs. RHP – .278/.319/.415/.734
More Likely Outcome – Solid back-up at the big league level
8. Sam Gervacio | RHP | Triple-A Round Rock | Age – 24 | Signed – Dominican Republic
Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 55 Future
Curveball – 45 | 50
Change-Up – 55 | 60
Control – 45 | 45
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 50 | 50
ETA – 2009
Final Grade – C+
Body Type – athletic and lanky, with a thin frame
Stuff
Fastball – low 90′s pitch that touches 94, has pretty good life though he doesn’t always put it in the spot he wants
Slider – slurvy pitch with solid bite…doesn’t always have that snap you want to see…has an ability to back door the pitch
Change-Up – good fade and tumble, maintains arm speed…leaves it up in the zone too much. You can see the hitter whiffing on it below:
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
Scouting Report
Gervacio is a true slinger…he really just slings the ball at the hitter and doesn’t use a lot of body in his wind-up. He’ll drop down to a side-arm angle or raise his arm slot slightly, but he usually uses a low 3/4 arm slot.
It’s this arm slot that makes him so tough on right handed hitters. Compare his splits from last year:
vs. LH – 8.88 K/9, 4.97 BB/9, 2.13 HR/9
vs. RH – 12.53 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, .35 HR/9
Now, he performed much better against lefties before last year, but he has always been better against right handed hitters.
Gervacio needs to work on his command. He’ll fly open at times when he plants his front foot over toward the left side of the mound. This usually occurs when Gervacio overthrows. An example of this is below:
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
Best Case Outcome – Quality set-up man
More Likely Outcome – Right handed specialist
9. Felipe Paulino | RHP | Triple-A Round Rock | Age – 25 | Signed – Dominican Republic
Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 60 Future
Curveball – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 35 | 40
Control – 45 | 50
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 45 | 45
ETA – 2009
Final Grade – C+
Body Type – very big and very wide pitcher
Stuff
Fastball – mid-upper 90′s of pure heat, but it’s a very straight heat
Curveball – power-type pitch with some slider tilt to it, good bite, but iinconsistent
Change-Up - below average pitch he will need to develop to be an effective starter
Scouting Report
Paulino battled shoulder problems all season and was limited to just .2 innings last season and still needs to prove he’s healthy.
In 2006, Paulino started struggling with his control/command and it’s been a problem ever since. He also hasn’t missed as many bats as the velocity of his fastball suggests he should.
Mechanically, Paulino actually has a fairly short stride. He uses terrific arm speed, a wide separation between his torso and hips, and a lot of intent to generate his velocity. He needs to work on staying closed as he has a tendency to fly open.
Reports coming out of Spring Training this year have been very ominous. He’s been getting hit hard and his velocity has been down.
Best Case Outcome – No. 4/5 starter or power set up man out of the bullpen
More Likely Outcome – Middle reliever or a spot starter/long man out of the bullpen
10. Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | N/A | Age – 22 | Signed – Taiwan, 2008
Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 55 Future
Curveball – 45 | 50
Splitter – 40 | 45
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 50 | 50
ETA – Late 2010
Final Grade – C+
Body Type – not a big pitcher…relatively small frame
Stuff
Fastball – anywhere from 92 – 95…the has pretty good life and he’s often around the plate with it…it tends to either rise or cut away from right handers. You can see his fastball below:
*Credit to tzengcool
Curveball – power pitch in the mid-70′s that appears harder than it actually is…can’t throw it for strikes consistently
Splitter – fringy pitch for now…it’s hard but doesn’t have a sharp break downward
Scouting Report
Lo is the first Taiwanese pitcher ever to be signed by the Houston Astros. The Astros think he could potentially start, but he’ll most likely be used out of the bullpen at the MLB level.
As mentioned earlier, Lo is usually around the plate with his fastball. However, he needs to do a better job commanding the pitch. There are instances that he can get his fastball by lesser hitters even though it drifted toward the middle of the plate, but he won’t get away with that at the upper levels. He has flashed the ability to locate it, however.
Lo will most likely be headed to one of Houston’s A-ball levels to start his professional career.
Best Case Outcome – Quality set-up man…or a No. 5 start should he impress as a starter
More Likely Outcome – Solid middle reliever
11. Collin DeLome | OF | A+ Salem | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 5, 2007
I actually think I’m selling DeLome short with this ranking here (could be as high as No. 8). He has big-time power, generating excellent bat speed though he has to lengthen his swing to build up that bat speed, meaning he has to start his swing earlier than he normally would want. Still, DeLome managed to cut down on the strike outs in a big way after he was promoted to A+ Salem, but the contact he made wasn’t as hard as it was in Single-A Lexington. However, there was also some bad luck involved, as his .262 BABIP would indicate. He’s not a complete hack at the plate, but he is certainly aggressive and will need to learn how to walk more.
What makes DeLome intriguing is the fact that he can play center field and he can play it pretty well. DeLome will be a guy to watch heading into 2009.
Grade – C+
ETA – 2011
12. Leandro Cespedes | RHP | Lexington (A) | Age – 22 | Signed – Dominican Republic
This is mostly a numbers selection because there is hardly any information on the guy right now. But he was relatively young for his level at Single-A Lexington and showed decent control along with an ability to miss bats. He was a bit hittable and he’s an extreme fly ball type, but he also has an ability to get both right and left handed hitters out. He’s particularly effective in the early innings and may profile better in relief in the long run.
Grade – C
ETA – Late 2011
13. Polin Trinidad | LHP | Corpus Christy (AA) | Age – 24 | Signed – Dominican Republic
Trinidad is your typical pitchability left hander that throws all his pitches for strikes. He mixes things up, pitches backwards, and keeps hitters off balance using his three or four pitch mix. As a result, Trinidad can be difficult to hit and his stuff plays up a bit. He’s not going to miss many bats, but he will look to limit the amount of force the ball is hit with off the player’s bat. I see him in the bullpen at the MLB level, either as a middle reliever or long man.
Grade – C
ETA – Late 2009
14. Koby Clemens | C | B – R | A+ Salem | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 8, 2005
Clemens is a mildly interesting prospect. Mostly known for being the son of Roger Clemens, the younger Clemens recently made the switch to catcher from third base. It’s unknown whether he’ll actually be able to handle the position. The initial returns weren’t good for Clemens. In 641 innings, he allowed 76 stolen bases in 102 attempts (25 CS%), allowed 56 wild pitches, and gave up 27 passed balls. He has average power and shown an ability to get on base, but he has holes in his swing which make him an easy target to strikeout. He also isn’t a very good athlete, but he’s also been relatively young for his level of competition thus far in his career. If he can stick at catcher, he may be able to provide some value with the bat down the road, but more likely he’ll try to carve out a role as a bench player with the added versatility of being able to play catcher.
Grade – C
ETA – 2012
15. Luis Cruz | LHP | Greeneville (Rookie) | Age – 18 | Drafted – Round 9, 2008
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Honorable Mentions (in no particular order): Phil Discher, J.B. Shuck, Brad Dydalewicz, Jay Austin, Sergio Perez, Federico Hernandez, Gilbert de la Vara, Mitch Einertson, T.J. Steele, Tim Torres, David Duncan
Also See: Houston Astros Team Page
Up Next: Milwaukee Brewers, Prospects 1 – 5
Other references used for this article: First Inning and Minor League Splits
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