Los Angeles Dodgers Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Dodgers Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 65 Now | 70 Future
Curveball – 55 | 60
Change-Up – 40 | 45
Control – 45 | 50
Command – 45 | 55
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – Late 2011
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Athletic

Stuff

Fastball – Electric, sitting between 92 – 96, touching a bit higher with plus-plus life. Explodes out of his hand and gets on hitters quickly because of a late body rotation…a lot of arm-side run

Curveball – It’s got a good snap to it and while it only registers in the mid-70′s, it looks harder and comes out of his hand looking like a fastball, buckling the knees of hitters…arm slot will sometimes be higher than the slot he uses for his fastball. Still needs to improve his overall feel for the pitch

Change-Up – A question mark for now, but improving. It has some sink, but he has to improve its consistency

Scouting Report

Chris Withrow has tremendous raw stuff and talent. He sort of flew under the radar when prospect lists came out last year because he missed all but four innings of the 2008 season. Very few lists put him amongst the top-10 Dodger prospects. I had him at No. 8 but even that was too low in hindsight.

Withrow was and is a little rough around the edges, but he managed to pile up the strikeouts last season and eventually managed to earn a promotion to Double-A Chattanooga where you could argue he performed better than in A+ ball.

In Chattanooga, Withrow’s strikeouts dropped, but you could see his command/control gradually improve. His walk percentage was down and he left fewer balls hanging in the middle of the plate.

Control has always been a kind of sticking point with Withrow and it’s something that could push him to relief if it comes down to it.

Withrow’s arm speed is lightning fast. You can sometimes see him trying to slow it down in order to prevent it from overtaking the delivery, arriving too soon, causing his pitches to sail. He’s still working to find more consistency in his release point as well.

I plan on writing a more extensive break down of Withrow’s mechanics in the near future.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 2/3 starter…worst case outcome would be Withrow coming out of the Dodger bullpen

Player Grades
Contact – 55 Now | 65 Future
Power – 30 | 40
Discipline – 40 | 50
Speed – 70 | 70
Defense – 50 | 60
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 45 | 55
ETA – 2012
Final Grade – B+/B

Body Type – Very skinny with a small frame, but very athletic

Scouting Report

The son of Major League pitcher Tom Gordon, Devaris Gordon was a difficult player for scouts to see before the 2008 draft. Gordon is unique in that last year was only his third year of playing baseball. So understandably, Gordon is an extremely raw talent. The Dodgers were on him more than any other team and were intrigued by his overall athleticism and speed, so they took a chance on him in the 4th round of the 2008 draft.

A supreme athlete, Gordon wowed observers with spectacular plays at the shortstop position. He made plays very few could. His range is excellent and it’s helped by a really quick first step. He’s got soft hands and he looks fluid. His throws come from a low arm slot, but they get solid carry. Gordon is still raw and careless at the position as evidenced by his 34 errors at the position.

Gordon is a plus-plus runner and lead the Midwest League with 73 stolen bases. However, you can argue he actually hurt his team overall as he was caught 25 times. The cut off percentage for when a player is actually hurting their ball club is about 75% because the value of a player erased from the base paths is much more than the value of an extra base. So he has to have more discretion for when to take off on the base paths. His instincts must improve.

Gordon is a fast-twitch athlete with a really quick bat. So while his swing is pretty unrefined, he’s able to get by in part because of his natural talent. Even when his lower body isn’t fully incorporated into his swing, his hands are fast enough to still generate hard contact when he squares up on the ball.

*Credit to
Reds Minor Leagues

As for the swing itself, Gordon strides into foot plant and lets the ball travel deep into his hitting zone. Gordon gives himself a lot of time to recognize the pitches being thrown to him. While pitch recognition is still a big challenge for Gordon, he at least has the advantage of waiting on the ball just a tiny bit longer than most other hitters.

Gordon has a very linear swing plane, which is going to prevent him from lifting the ball consistently. His approach is also very much contact oriented as he tries to take advantage of his speed. In addition, Gordon’s lack of size and raw strength is another factor that is going to limit his power potential.

Best Case Outcome – High average hitter with a good OBP and plenty of doubles and triples to go along with plus level defense and elite speed on the base paths.

More Likely Outcome – Average offensive everyday shortstop with plus level defense

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Ethan Martin | RHP | Grade – B – Tremendous arm with inconsistent results…could be a front of the rotation starter or a power arm out of the bullpen

4. Aaron Miller | LHP | Grade – B/B- – Potential middle of the rotation starter…has good, but not great stuff

5. Josh Lindblom | RHP | Grade – B-/B – Could be a starter, but most likely will see a move to the bullpen, where his stuff plays up…added a kind of slider or cutter to his repertoire this Spring and I discuss this in his report

*Scott Elbert is not considered a prospect based on the criteria for these lists

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UP NEXT – Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits