Minnesota Twins Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Twins Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 40 | 55
Discipline – 50 | 65
Speed – 60 | 60
Defense – 55 | 65
Arm – 70 | 70
Instincts – 50 | 60
ETA – 2013
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Very athletic and projectable

Scouting Report

A 5-tool talent, the Twins held Aaron Hicks back in extended spring training before placing him in Beltoit of the Midwest League, somewhere he could have been all season, getting ABs, and developing himself as a player.

But nevertheless, talent evaluators got to watch Hicks in just under 300 (297 to be exact) plate appearances and while at first glance, the numbers look pedestrian, there are a lot of positives to take from Hicks’ performance.

To start, Hicks was described as a very raw talent coming out of high school and while that is still the case, Hicks surprised many with how disciplined and patient his approach was at the plate last season. He walked in 14% of his PAs in the GCL in 2008 and the trend continued in the Midwest League where he walked in 13.5% of his PAs.

A scout told me when his team worked out Hicks and tested his eye sight, his eyes were amongst the best he had seen since he’s been there. Testing a player’s eye site is much more comprehensive than you’d think it would be. Given the fact that he tested so well, maybe it shouldn’t be such a surprise that he saw the ball well and was able to recognize different pitch types.

Hicks’ contact rate dropped in 2009 (from 15.5% to 18.5%), but that is not unexpected when you consider the difference in talent between pitchers in the Gulf Coast League and pitchers in the Midwest League. His overall K% isn’t alarming either though I think we’d all like to see him improve on that rate as he goes forward.

The Midwest League is very pitcher-friendly where hitters really struggled to put up big numbers. So the .131 ISO-power is neither surprising nor a reason for concern. Hicks’ projectable body, bat speed, and wrist strength all suggest he should hit for above average power down the line.

I liked his swing out of high school as well, thinking it would enable him to hit for power eventually. His right hand swing had a little more loft, but it wasn’t as refined as his left hand swing. I liked the left hand swing better, but both were more than solid for a raw high school talent like Hicks. It was only 30 ABs, but Hicks had 1.039 OPS batting right handed and an .845 OPS batting left handed.

Now, I did not get to see Hicks’ 2009 swing from the left hand side, but there is a clip of him from the right hand side and the swing is a little different than the one I saw in 2008 with the most noticeable changes being made to the hands, which are lower, and to the stride, stride. Based on that one swing, he doesn’t build up as much momentum as he did before, but again, it’s just one swing and I don’t really want to make conclusive statements without seeing more video.

However, it is worth mentioning his splits: .688 OPS vs. LHP and .745 OPS vs. RHP. But again, very small sample size here. Below we have Hicks’ swing from the right hand side in 2008 (far right) and 2009 (middle), and the most recent version I’ve seen of his left handed swing (far left) and I believe that swing was at some point in 2008.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media and to jason0016

Defensively, Hicks is excellent. His instincts allow him to get good reads on balls off the bat and his plus speed allows him to track down balls most won’t get to. There were a number of teams that liked Hicks more as a pitcher coming out of high school as he was able to get up to the mid-90′s with his fastball, so his arm rates as plus-plus.

Hicks will continue his professional career in the Florida State League next season.

Best Case Outcome – All Star everyday center fielder

More Likely Outcome – A little too soon to say

Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 60 Future
Slider – 60 | 65
Change-Up – 55 | 60
Control – 50 | 60
Command – 50 | 60
Pitchability – 50 | 60
ETA – 2011 or 2012
Final Grade – B/B+

Body Type – Tall and lanky…a projectable build

Stuff

Fastball – Sits between 89 – 94…he sometimes raises his arm slot, which gives the pitch more sink though it comes in at a lower velocity. When he’s at his classic 3/4 arm slot, the pitch has good life and run to it

Slider – A true swing-and-miss pitch, it’s a difficult pitch to pick up out Gibson’s hand…breaks late with excellent tilt…a two-plane break with good depth. You can see how Gibson’s slider (right) comes in on the same trajectory as his fastball (left) before breaking late:

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Change-Up – I haven’t seen him throw it much, but it’s described as an above average offering with plus potential…good fade and sink

Scouting Report

Kyle Gibson dropped to the Twins in last year’s draft and scooped him up with the 22nd pick. Gibson dropped because a forearm injury caused his velocity to drop to the mid-80′s in his final college start.

Doctors eventually found a stress facture in his forearm, and forearm injuries can be a precursor for a more serious injury in his elbow.

When healthy, Gibson is a strike thrower who commands all his pitches well. The slider and change-up help Gibson miss bats and his fastball does a good job of inducing ground balls.

Gibson is intelligent with a good feel for pitching. He knows how to mix in all his offerings and keep hitters guessing. He’s not overpowering, so he’s not going to be able to just let it fly and hope hitters swing through his fastball.

Mechanics

I’ve never been a big fan of Gibson’s mechanics because he does a lot of things I usually would preach against though again, I understand how everybody is different.

Gibson is a tall and fall pitcher that doesn’t use momentum to his advantage and he doesn’t get a lot of use out of his body. His mechanics are pretty linear as well if you look at his lower body. Gibson’s arm action is unusual as well and it looks like he puts a lot of torque on his elbow. That being said, Gibson is a good athlete and he does repeat his delivery well.

Best Case Outcome – Borderline No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 2 starter

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Wilson Ramos | C | Grade – B – All around good catcher might have a new team in the not so distant future with Joe Mauer blocking him

4. Miguel Sano | SS/3b | Grade – B – Hasn’t seen a professional pitch yet, but his tool set is tremendous

5. Ben Revere | CF | Grade – B- – A little overrated by some, he’s a speedy, high contact outfielder with good range, a below average arm, and little power

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UP NEXT – Minnesota Twins Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits