Minor Musings for 5-15-10

May 15, 2010 BY Alex Eisenberg 10 Comments

Bounce Back Years

Bryan Morris | RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s only 40 innings, but Morris has been dramatically better than he’s been at any point in his career. The big change is the much-improved command/control. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and he’s been better at keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate. This is coming after a year in which he walked more hitters than he struck out…it’s still to early to declare his start to the season as more than a fluke.

Nico Vasquez | INF | St. Louis Cardinals

Vasquez was one of my favorite sleeper prospects from 2008, but he was a big disappointment in 2009. Now he’s back in 2010 and putting up one of the more stranger lines in minor league baseball. As of this writing, he’s walking in an astounding 25.9% of his plate appearances and hitting for the power that had deserted him in 09′. He’s still not making contact at a high rate and his BABIP is also lower than you’d like to see from a minor league hitter, but he’s back on my radar again.

Sleepers

Liam Hendriks | RHP | Minnesota Twins

Hendriks was on my radar last year, but he’s taken a big step forward in 2010. His command has been excellent, striking out just under 32% of all batters faced, while walking just over 3%. He was just recently promoted to the FSL and made his first start, going 7 innings, giving up three hits, striking out eight, and walking none.

Charlie Furbush | LHP | Detroit Tigers

Furbush, like Hendriks, missed 2008 with an arm related injury and is using his second year back from injury to breakout. He’s striking out 33.6% of the batters he’s faced, while walking just 6.2%. He’s old for his level and already spent 113 innings in Lakeland of the FSL last year, so a promotion to Double-A should be forthcoming.

Disappointing Starts to the Season

Jiovanni Mier | SS | Houston Astros

Is it too early to be concerned about Jiovanni Mier’s slow start? Yeah, I think it is. His peripherals are very solid as he’s walking in 12% of his plate appearances, while his contact rate isn’t too high at around 17%. He’s been unlucky with a .250 BABIP and he hasn’t hit for power (just a .058 ISO-power) yet. But the K:BB ratio shows he’s not being overmatched at this point.

Chris Withrow | RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers

If you throw a mid-90′s fastball and possess a knockout curve, you shouldn’t be knocked around like Withrow has been so far this year. We know he has some command and consistency issues, but so far he’s alternated good and terrible starts and he’s yet to have a truly outstanding performance. He’s been really homer prone as well. It’s still early, but I’d like to see more dominance from him.

Overmatched

That is what Sally League hitters are against Atlanta pitching prospect Julio Teheran, who the Braves finally promoted to A+ Myrtle Beach.

10 Comments »

Marc H said:

Devin Mesoraco cannot be ignored as a Bounce Back candidate (due to his draft position) and a Sleeper due to his past performance dropping him so low off the radar.

# 16 May 2010 at 2:43 PM

Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

Marc, I mentioned Mesoraco in an earlier post. I’ve definitely been keeping an eye on him and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down — he’s actually improved his OPS by close to a thousand points since that post. Peripherals look excellent…I don’t see a weakness in any of his metrics thus far other than the fact his sample size is still small.

# 18 May 2010 at 12:20 AM

Ryan Kennedy said:

I’m interested in your thoughts on Nick Franklin, Michael Pineda, and Jared Cosart…Seems there all having superb years at levels to which there age makes them relatively young. Has your projections for them changed at all and given some of the struggles of 09′ 1st rd SS’s does Franklin still seem like a signability reach for the m’s.

# 31 May 2010 at 2:37 AM

Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

Ryan, some quick thoughts on the three you mention…

Nick Franklin – Like him a lot…wasn’t sure how much power he had in his bat despite his wiry strength and I had questions about his patience at the plate, which still needs work, but he’s got more thunder in his bat than his size lets on. My original upside projection for Franklin was an above average everyday shortstop and I think that still sounds about right with perhaps a chance to be a bit better.

I didn’t even know Franklin was considered a signability pick and I guess he’s proving anybody who thought he was a reach wrong at the moment.

Michael Pineda – He’s a guy I’ve always liked, but it’s always been a matter of if he can stay healthy. He’s got a funky arm action. I don’t have any questions about him from a stuff or a command standpoint. I had him as a strong No. 3/borderline No. 2 starter upside and that still holds true today. If he can’t stay healthy, he’ll move to the bullpen.

Jarred Cosart – I mentioned Cosart briefly in the post I linked to in my other comment in this thread, and as I said then, he’s somebody with huge upside and has big time helium at the moment…tremendous arm strength. Need to get a more in-depth look at him mechanically from this year, but from the looks of it, he’s still a guy that relies a lot on his arm strength.

I had his upside as a front of the rotation starter, which also still holds true. But I also said his upside wasn’t as high as Brody Colvin, which I was wrong on. The only difference now is that we have a better idea of who Cosart is as a pitcher and he’s cemented his upside as a No. 1 starter.

If I get some time later in the season, I’ll try to do more complete write ups of each.

# 31 May 2010 at 5:10 AM

Ryan Kennedy said:

I read a few places that the M’s Front Office wouldn’t call Franklin such but they didn’t want to grab a pitcher after 17 or so were taken ahead of them at 27. They also new Ackley would cost so they went with a guy they liked that most didn’t see as a 1st rd’er. He wasn’t in Keith Law’s top 100 going in and he went 27th for 1.38M I believe. So it smelled of sign-ability to me, but overall he’s looked great. Thanks for the response, I just found this site the other day and have been hooked, I read BA, Law, Sickles, Prospectus, etc….But the video absolutely makes the difference in filtering all the opinions and information out there. Anyway I look forward to seeing how things play out with these guys as well as Hendricks and Morris. Thanks

# 31 May 2010 at 7:51 PM

Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

Interesting about Franklin…didn’t know Law hadn’t ranked him in his top-100. I believe BA had him in the 40′s. Signability pick or not, the circumstances are a little different for a signable high school pick compared to a signable college pick because there are still so many ways for that high school player to develop, especially if they are a top-150 prospect overall, while the college pick often is what it is.

I appreciate the kind words. The video definitely adds context to the scouting reports and allows you verify any information you get.

# 1 June 2010 at 11:50 PM

Ryan Kennedy said:

oh Snap…Franklin was named to BA’s mid season all star team as there top SS. Pineda was there #2 SP he also made there top 25 revised prospect list, Pineda also made Keith Laws. There is something very gratifying about identifying a rising star possibly and having that thought echoed by some of the industries elite. Not sure if you have compiled any lists of your own but if you have where would these 3 fit. I’m interested in Drew Cumberland’s stock.

# 7 July 2010 at 11:06 PM

Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

I have not compiled similar lists. But if I had to assess where each would grade now, Franklin would be a B. Based on players from this past top-100 list, we’re talking about a prospect in the 50 – 100 range. Pineda I originally felt would be given a similar grade, but seeing what scouts have been saying, I’m not so sure now. Once I get a chance to catch one of his starts, I’ll be sure to make it into an article. He’s high on my list of guys I need to see.

Cumberland’s stock is the same as it was before. High average, high contact hitter with good discipline and limited power potential.

# 8 July 2010 at 1:32 AM

Ryan Kennedy said:

Thats cool, I think top 100 lists will take some serious work this year with so many players graduating to the bigs, a pretty week draft class in terms of depth and dissapointing years from Vitters, Aumont, Triunfel, Ramos, etc…It seems like followers like me may be introduced to a ton of new names this year. I’m curious are you more inclined to put a guy like Jerry Sands or Brandon Belt on a list or tools guys like Profar or Domingo Santana on your list. I guess do you reward great production in spite of a lower projection or would you be inclined to over look there great years because you know others though not currently as productive have a much higher chance of becoming big time players.

# 8 July 2010 at 1:15 PM

Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

I’d be more inclined to go with the upside guys…not sure if any of the four will be in the top-100 next year…Profar might be though

# 9 July 2010 at 1:03 AM