New York Mets Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – New York Mets Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 60 Now | 65 Future
Curveball – 45 | 55
Change-Up – 55 | 60/65
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – Late 2010 or Early 2011
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Small pitcher measuring out at just 6-feet and 160 pounds, though I think he looks bigger than 160

Stuff

Fastball – Uses a couple of different types…one that cuts and one with heavy sink that hitters pound into the ground…fastball will register anywhere from 90 – 96, touching 98 in shorter stints

Curveball – Thrown in the upper-70′s, the pitch has a tight break at times, but it can be inconsistent in both break and location as he’ll leave it up in the zone occasionally. One area of concern is Mejia’s tendency to raise his arm slot in an obvious way when throwing his curveball. An example of this below…one of Mejia’s better curveballs is on the left and his fastball his on the right:

*Credit to thebinghamtonmets

Change-Up – Above average, sometimes plus pitch with sink and fade.

Scouting Report

Hitters struggle to center the ball against Jenrry Mejia because of the type of movement his pitches possess. This shows up in his career BABIP against (.285), low LD% against (10.8%), and high GB% (60%). Not only does Mejia keep the ball on the ground, but he’s able to miss bats.

One chink in Mejia’s armor is his command. He’s solid enough at throwing strikes, but because of the movement on his pitches, he doesn’t necessarily command them within the strike zone.

Mechanically there is some effort to his delivery. He’s a bend as you break guy, meaning when he breaks his hands, he’s bends at the waist and pops back up before planting his foot. I think it helps create more torque between their torso and hips as well as improves a pitcher’s range of motion as far as the arm action is concerned. Mejia also dips his back shoulder, which helps him keep his body back and lead with his hips.

A couple things I’d like to see Mejia work on:

1. His effectiveness against right handers. His change-up makes him particularly effective against lefties, but his control suffers against right handed hitters.

2. His stamina. Mejia is great through the first four innings, but he struggles once he hits the 5th and 6th innings. Once he hits those later innings, his stuff loses a bit of oomph and his command suffers.

3. Consistency. Mejia’s mechanics and arm action can change from pitch-to-pitch, though often times it’s based on the pitch type. The inconsistency has hurt Mejia’s command and it’s something that could push him to the bullpen if he doesn’t correct it.

Best Case Outcome – Front of the rotation starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 3 starter or an elite level reliever

Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 60 Future
Power – 50 | 60
Discipline – 45 | 55/50
Speed – 45 | 40
Defense – 55 | 55
Arm – 50 | 50
Instincts – 50 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Somewhat stocky, but a solid athlete

Scouting Report

It’s hard to believe Fernando Martinez is just 20 y/o because he seems like he’s been around forever. But his age is what makes you forgive his pedestrian numbers in the couple years be and what makes you impressed with his production from last season.

An increase in power production is what spurred Martinez’s improved numbers last year. After posting ISO-powers of .106 and .145 in 2007 and 2008, Martinez exploded by posting a .250 ISO-power in a pitcher friendly Buffalo stadium against Triple-A pitching.

His power blossomed in part due to some mechanical changes at the plate. The clips below I’ve synchronized to contact, but the clip on the right is of a much higher quality and speed:

*Credit to farmsystem and to MLB Advanced Media

The big thing to notice is how much more efficiently he carries his weight forward. The old clip shows Martinez using a very short stride/step forward and then relying on his bat speed to produce good contact. Last year, Martinez increased his stride and as a result, he was able to efficiently transfer his weight from his back side to his front leg. He’s getting so much more energy and power from his body than he was before. He’s able to turn the hands and hips together on a firm front leg.

We also see Martinez adjusting to the pitch thrown, an 86 mph change-up to the outside corner. Martinez keeps his body back, while leaving his hands and the bat head in the hitting zone for a longer period of time.

Despite Martinez’s success at Triple-A, he was overmatched at the MLB level. Martinez has flashes of a good approach — he uses all fields, he makes consistent contact, he adjusts to offspeed stuff — but he’s aggressive at the plate and big league pitchers exploited it. He has to work on being more selective.

Injuries

Martinez has been injured in each of the past four seasons, which is not a good sign for somebody that just turned 20. A lot of the weaknesses in Martinez’s game come from areas where experience is crucial. The more Martinez sits, the his development is pushed back.

Defense

Martinez was moved off center field last year, which is a move most saw coming years ago. He’s got a thick lower half and it’s cut into his speed/range. Martinez’s arm rates as about average, maybe a bit better.

Best Case Outcome – He could be a borderline All Star if everything goes right

More Likely Outcome – Above average everyday corner outfielder, maybe a little worse…needs to stay healthy

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Wilmer Flores | SS | Grade – B – I’m not as high on Flores as others are, but you can’t deny that scouts still love Flores…he’s still extremely young, but his performance was really bad and the fact that there is almost no chance he stays at shortstop and may have to move all the way to first base is worrisome for me. Click here for a more extended look at Flores and my thoughts on his future and click here for a more extended look at Flores’ defense.

4. Ike Davis | 1b | Grade – B – Huge bounce back season for Davis and he now looks like the Mets future first baseman…see more on Davis by clicking here

5. Jon Niese | LHP | Grade – B/B- – Solid MLB-ready starter will be coming back from an injury in which he tore his hamstring

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UP NEXT – New York Mets Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits