Philadelphia Phillies Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Phillies Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 60 Future
Power – 45 | 60
Discipline – 45 | 60
Speed – 60 | 60
Defense – 45 | 55
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – Lean and athletic…still very projectable

Scouting Report

Domonic Brown’s numbers don’t really bear this out, but he’s still very raw as a player and is just starting to tap into his potential.

Brown’s swing has yet to really be refined. He does a slight rock at his set-up and then strides forward, letting the bat drag a bit, which adds some length to his swing, but also leaves him in a position to keep the bat head in the hitting zone for a good length of time.

*Credit to David Pratt

Brown is a quick-twitch athlete with the natural ability to accelerate the bat through the hitting zone and make hard contact. The process of Brown’s swing is more important than the result of the particular pitch above (a foul pop-up). We see Brown is able to get his whole body incorporated into his swing…the hands turn together with the hips on a firm front leg.

Brown has progressed every year since being drafted. Each year is something different, whether it’s improving his contact rate or getting on base more. Last year, Brown’s power blossomed as he posted a .214 ISO-power in A+ Clearwater and a .177 ISO in Double-A Reading. Part of the improvement was due to Brown hitting more balls in the air.

An area Brown still must work on is his pitch recognition. Double-A pitchers were able to get him chasing off-speed pitches out of the zone at times. However, Brown has an excellent head on his shoulders. He gets praised for his make-up and work ethic and he seems to understand the importance of getting on base.

Defensively, Brown’s arm is strong, but he’s still learning how to read the ball off the bat and what routes to take on balls in the air.

Overall, however, Brown has the chance to be the complete package. He can hit for average and work the count to get on base via the walk. He’s started to tap into his power potential, though he still must answer questions about how much power he’ll eventually hit for. If that wasn’t enough, Brown also has the speed to steal perhaps 20 – 30 bases annually.

Best Case Outcome – All Star corner outfielder

More Likely Outcome – Above average corner outfielder

Player Grades
4-Seamer – 60 Now | 65 Future
2-Seamer – 65 | 70
Curveball – 50 | 60
Control – 40 | 55
Command – 40 | 50
Pitchability – 50 | 55
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – B

Body Type – Very tall with a muscular build

Stuff

4-seamer – Mid-90′s pitch that can hit 98 with a lot of life and carry through the strike zone…3/4 arm slot leads the pitch to move laterally.

2-seamer – Low-mid 90′s pitch with a distinctly different action than his four-seamer. The pitch sinks and bores into right handers, inducing ground balls.

See the 4-seamer on the left and the 2-seamer on the right:

Curveball – The pitch has a tight two-plane break at times, but he has difficulty commanding it. Because of his arm slot, he doesn’t always get on the top of the pitch leaving it flat and coming out more like a slurve. It can be difficult to pick up out of his hand because it comes from the same slot as his fastball. I’ve seen Aumont vary the pitch’s speed/break as well.

Scouting Report

Phillippe Aumont was moved to the bullpen last season, a move which lowers his value, but increases his chances that he’ll stay healthy and make a faster arrival to the major league level.

However, once Aumont was traded to Philly, the Phillies announced their intentions to let Aumont develop as a starter.

Rumors swirled as to why Aumont was moved to the bullpen in the first place. One rumor that gained traction was that Aumont had a degenerative hip condition, but Aumont himself came out and said while he did have a hip problem as an amateur, the condition was not degenerative.

Hip condition or not, Aumont is an injury risk because of past indicators (he’s had minor injuries to his elbow and shoulder) and his mechanics are less than sound, though they work just fine for Aumont.

*Credit to Pacific Prospect Report (site not up anymore)

One issue for Aumont is his tendency to throw across his body. He lands somewhat stiffly and really has to work to get over his front side. Because of this, he doesn’t always get a full extension and finish on his follow through.

And then there are Aumont’s front side mechanics where he lets his glove hover down by his hip when it should be closer to in front of his chest. Proper front side mechanics are usually necessary for both health and command.

Despite no real change-up in his arsenal, Aumont had no pronounced lefty/righty split, a testament to how good his fastball is.

Aumont has an ability to both miss bats and generate ground balls, and you’d be talking about him being a truly elite reliever prospect if he had better command.

While Aumont will develop as a starter for now, it’s a long shot he’ll stay there. His arsenal, demeanor, and past health all suggest he’d more effective in relief.

Best Case Outcome – Elite level closer

More Likely Outcome – Top level set-up man

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. J.C. Ramirez | RHP | Grade – B- – Survived an extremely difficult park for pitchers, but his peripherals were underwhelming despite great stuff…looks more like a future reliever than a future starter

4. Sebastian Valle | C | Grade – B- – Talented catcher is still very raw and struggled against full season pitching, but still put up big numbers against older competition in Williamsport…has flashed good discipline, but needs to be more consistent

5. Trevor May | RHP | Grade – B- – Potential for three average or better offerings…missed a lot of bats, but his command needs a lot of work

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ALSO SEE – Phillies Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits