Phillies Top-15 Prospects of 2011
1. Domonic Brown | RF | Age – 23 | Grade – A-
2. Jarred Cosart | RHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B+
3. Jon Singleton | 1b/OF | Age – 19 | Grade – B+
4. Brody Colvin | RHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B
5. Jesse Biddle | LHP | Age – 19 | Grade – B-
6. Trevor May | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B-
7. Justin De Fratus | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – B-
8. Aaron Altherr | OF | Age – 20 | Grade – C+
9. Sebastian Valle | C | Age – 20 | Grade – C+
10. Domingo Santana | RF | Age – 18 | Grade – C+
11. Van Worley | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – C+
12. Jiwan James | CF | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
13. Julio Rodriguez | RHP | Age – 20 | Grade – C+
14. Perci Garner | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
15. Gauntlett Eldemire | CF | Age – 22 | Grade – C+/C
› Prospect Primer (Grading Criteria Explained)
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ALSO SEE – Phillies Top Prospects, No’s 1 – 5
Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2011 Top Prospect List Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.
Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2011. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2010. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.
Prospects 1 and 6 are available for everyone to read. All other scouting reports can be accessed by Premium Members only.
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Quick Rundown on Prospects 6 – 15
- 6. Trevor May | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B- … See his report below…
- 7. Justin De Fratus | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – B- … Underrated reliever without many true weaknesses except his stuff probably doesn’t qualify as elite, and his command could be shored up a bit. Should see time at some point this year.
- 8. Aaron Altherr | OF | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Raw and toolsy athlete fits the mold of a Philly prospect. Plenty of good buzz surrounding him and he seems like a safer bet to me than a few of the other top athletes in the system.
- 9. Sebastian Valle | C | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Defense improved, and his power showed up in full season ball, but plate discipline is still his biggest concern.
- 10. Domingo Santana | RF | Age – 18 | Grade – C+ … No surprise he struggled given his youth, but that K% is extraordinarily high. His swing will have to be worked on to produce more contact.
- 11. Van Worley | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – C+ … Limited upside, but Major League ready potential back of the rotation starter.
- 12. Jiwan James | CF | Age – 22 | Grade – C+ … Probably the best overall athlete in the system who has potential to be an excellent defensive center fielder. However, other than his speed and a little bit of batting average, he offers almost nothing offensively
- 13. Julio Rodriguez | RHP | Age – 20 | Grade – C+ … Big strikeouts and improvement throughout the season is reason for his ranking here. Needs his stuff jump another level before people really star to take notice.
- 14. Perci Garner | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+ … Raw for a college pitcher, but two potentially above average offerings makes him appealing.
- 15. Gauntlett Eldemire | CF | Age – 22 | Grade – C+/C … Raw for a college hitter, but 20 homer, 20 steal potential in center field makes him appealing.
- HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) – J.C. Ramirez (RHP) | Phillippe Aumont (RHP) | Jon Pettibone (RHP) | Kelly Dugan (RF) | Austin Hyatt (RHP) | Josh Zeid (RHP) | Jeremy Barnes (SS/2b) | Mike Schwimer (RHP) | John Mayberry (OF) | Anthony Hewitt (3b/OF) | Cesar Hernandez (2b) | Eric Pettis (RHP) | Miguel Alvarez (OF) | Cameron Rupp (C) | Heitor Correa (RHP) | Mike Stutes (RHP) | Drew Naylor (RHP) | Colby Shreve (RHP) | Mike Nesseth (RHP) | Zach Collier (OF) | Stephen Malcolm (SS) | Drew Carpenter (RHP) | Yohan Flande (LHP) | Mike Cisco (RHP) | Albert Cartwright (2b) | Leandro Castro (OF) | Mario Hollands (LHP) | Davd Buchanon (RHP) | Bryan Morgado (LHP) | Jonathan Musser (RHP) | Jake Borup (RHP) | Ebelin Lugo (RHP) | Lisalberto Bonilla (RHP) | Cody Overbeck (3b) | Lino Martinez (LHP) | Francisco Silva (SS) | Anderson Gonzalez (SS) | Freddy Galvis (SS)
- *Antonio Bastardo and Scott Mathieson are no longer considered prospects based on the criteria set forth for these lists.
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Fastball – 55 Now | 60 Future
Curveball – 55/50 | 55/60
Change-Up – 45 | 50
Control – 40 | 45
Command – 40 | 50
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – Late 2013 or Early 2014
Final Grade – B-
Last Year’s Team Ranking – No. 5
Last Year’s Grade – B-
Body Type Type – Tall with a physical build.
Fastball – Sits in the low – mid 90′s with good life…bores in on right handed hitters.
Curveball – Thrown in the high 70′s, the pitch comes out of May’s hand looking like a fastball and features a sharp downward break when it’s on.
Change-Up – Shows good deception and late fade, but it’s inconsistent.
It was a tale of two seasons for Trevor May. He started the season with A+ Clearwater and while he had no problem missing bats, he really had trouble finding the strike zone, and the problem got progressively worse as the season wore on. In his final month with Clearwater, May actually ended up walking more hitters than he was able to strike out.
At that point, May was demoted to Single-A Lakewood, where he essentially turned into a different pitcher. He walked just 7.7% of all batters faced, compared to 19% of hitters in Clearwater. And he was consistent in his ability to throw strikes. He didn’t experience major fluctuations.
May has always had problems throwing strikes. If you count the second half of last year as a separate season in itself, that would be the first time he’s walked under 13.3% of all batters faced.
If you look at his delivery, it’s really not that bad. The main thing he needs to fix are his front side mechanics, something we saw Colvin do last year.
*Credit to ScoutingTheSally
As you can see, his glove ends up by his side, next to his knee, which puts his shoulder at risk of flying open. The interesting thing here is that his front side mechanics are not as bad as Colvin’s were, so I’m having trouble understanding why it’s taken May so long to make a similar type of adjustment.
May can be guilty of overthrowing at times, which is another thing that can make throwing strikes difficult.
May’s wildness can work in his favor at times because he sometimes becomes effectively wild. Hitters don’t know where the ball will end up and he becomes very difficult to center the ball against.
Obviously when you have a pitcher who struggles to throw strikes, a natural solution is to put him in the bullpen, which I think makes a lot of sense in May’s case. There is a good track record of pitchers like May who are put in the bullpen and end up thriving.
However, I don’t expect the Phillies to give up on May as a starter until he proves he can’t do it.
Best Case Outcome – Borderline No. 2 starter or a solid No. 3
More Likely Outcome – Power arm out of the bullpen.
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