Pittsburgh Pirates Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Pirates Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 70 | 75
Discipline – 50 | 60
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 45 | 50
Arm – 70 | 70
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – Physical frame with a little more projection left in his upper half…thick lower half

Scouting Report

Pedro Alvarez got his professional career off to a slow start in 2009. He still hit for power and he still got on base via the walk — and those are things Alvarez is always going to do — but he was also piling up the strikeouts and while that’s another thing Alvarez is always going to do, seeing him strike out in 24% of his plate appearances in A+ ball was a little alarming.

Still, something wasn’t quite right…he wasn’t making particularly good contact, with a BABIP of .295 and a line drive percentage of 8%. Slowly, but surely, Alvarez began to turn it on. His May OPS was .871 and his June OPS was .885 before being promoted to Double-A Altoona.

After a small adjustment period, Alvarez was locked in and scorching hot. He hit for both average and power, as well as continued to work the count like he’s always done. He even managed to lower his K%.

Alvarez has plus-plus raw power, brought on by plus-plus bat speed. He’s got tremendously strong and fast forearms and wrists to accelerate the bat head through the hitting zone in an incredibly short amount of time. This allows him to wait until the last possible second to unload on the ball. Not surprisingly, the ball comes off his bat extremely well.

Alvarez gets tremendous leverage in his swing. He predominantly puts the ball in the air, but he’s at his best when he’s combining line drives with his fly balls as evidenced by his 2009 numbers. His LD% was 21.4 in Altoona compared to just 8% in Lynchburg and that’s a big reason why he was able to hit for such a good average in Double-A.

There are a couple of glaring weaknesses Alvarez will need to address. He strikes out too much. That is likely never going to change. But he needs to cut down on them enough to where he’d still be able to hit for a solid average. Don’t expect him to perennially hit .300 though.

Alvarez struggles against left handed pitching. He improved the number modestly while in Double-A (.785 OPS against), but it still needs to work. The biggest problem for Alvarez against left handed pitching is that he doesn’t pick up on the breaking ball all that well coming out of a lefty’s hand, so he commits too early, gets out in front, and looks off balance.

Third, Alvarez has below average range at third base. His hands are good and his arm is plus-plus, but as he continues to add weight to his frame, the worry is that he’ll have to move over to first base. To improve his range, he’s going to have to stay lean and athletic and that will require a lot of work on Alvarez’ part.

Best Case Outcome – All Star everyday player at first or third base though you’d see him participate in a few more All Star games if he’s able to stay at third

More Likely Outcome – Borderline All Star who still problems against good left pitching…I expect him to stay at third base at least for his first couple years in the Majors, but eventually think he’ll be moved over to first base

Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 45 | 50
Discipline – 50 | 55/60
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 55 | 60
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – 2012
Final Grade – B

Body Type – After being overweight coming out of high school, he slimmed down over the years at Boston College

Scouting Report

Was Tony Sanchez worth the No. 4 pick? Probably not. But the Pirates liked him and they used the money they saved with the Sanchez signing to sign high talent pitching later in the draft with signability issues. Sanchez also went out and immediately put up big numbers with his bat, quieting some of his critics who didn’t think much of it.

Sanchez has a pretty good approach at the plate. You can get him to chase off-speed pitches outside the strike zone, but he’s flashed an ability to recognize them. Over time, I expect his pitch recognition to improve.

Sanchez uses the entire field to his advantage and he’s not limited to opposite field singles. His average power translates to the entire field.

*Credit to buccofans

Sanchez hits off his front foot, but he turns his front foot far inside, which I think helps him keep his weight back, before planting aggressively. He keeps his swing short and has some natural quick-twitchness in his forearms to accelerate the bat head without much of a loading process. He also gets decent leverage in his swing, but it’s a swing plane more suited for line drives.

Sanchez has to work on keeping his hands back and adjusting to pitches of the off-speed variety.

There aren’t too many questions about Sanchez’ defense. He has soft hands and is an overall good athlete for a catcher. His arm is strong and he’s praised for his ability to frame pitches as well as his leadership skills and intelligence. He reportedly needs to work on his game calling as well as his overall footwork.

I wouldn’t call Sanchez a special player, but he seems like a good bet to contribute his services to the Pirates for years to come.

Best Case Outcome – Above average catcher

More Likely Outcome – Average everyday catcher

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Jose Tabata | OF | Grade – B – Still very young for his level, but I’d like to see a true breakout season from him this year

4. Brad Lincoln | RHP | Grade – B-/B – Will now be in his third year back from Tommy John surgery, I see him as closer to a solid No. 4 starter as opposed to a No. 2

5. Starling Marte | CF | Grade – B- – Toolsy, high upside talent needs to improve his plate discipline to reach full potential

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UP NEXT – Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits