Pittsburgh Pirates Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 1 – 5
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You can find a full listing of each team’s top prospect list in the Top Prospect List Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team’s best fan sites. Now up: the Pittsburgh Pirates…
Also See: Pittsburgh Pirates, Prospects 6 – 15
1. Pedro Alvarez | 3b | B – L | N/A | Age – 21 | Drafted – Round 1 (2), 2008
Player Grades
Contact – 40 Now | 50 Future
Power – 60 | 65
Discipline – 45 | 55
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 45 | 50
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 50 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A-
I completed a scouting report on Alvarez before the draft last June, which you can read here. I’m not worried about any attitude problems Alvarez might have since he was known to be an extremely hard worker when he was at Vanderbilt. The only concern I have with Alvarez is the number of strike outs he’ll pile up as well as the probability that he’ll have to move off third base. Other than that, he’s an elite prospect. If he has to move off third, he does lose a little luster off his prospect status.
Best Case Outcome – All Star third baseman
More Likely Outcome – Borderline All Star at third base or a top-7 first baseman.
2. Andrew McCutchen | CF | B – R | AAA Indianapolis | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 1, 2005
Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 55 Future
Power – 40 | 45
Discipline – 50 | 60
Speed – 60 | 60
Defense – 55 | 60
Arm – 50 | 50
Instincts – 55 | 60
ETA – 2009
Final Grade – B+
Body Type – not a physically big person, but very athletic…I’m sure there is some more room to fill out
Scouting Report
McCutchen has a couple issues to work through as a hitter. The first are his struggles with breaking stuff. One particular game against Louisville (Reds affiliate) exemplified his problems, but also highlighted McCutchen’s strengths as a player. I found the chess match (see Daryl Thompson’s capsule) between McCutchen and Louisville starter Daryl Thompson a fascinating thing to watch.
First AB – Two fastballs for balls, 3rd fastball ripped down the right field line for a single
Second AB – Big swooping curveball thrown out of the strike zone (swing and miss), big swooping curveball thrown for a strike, big swooping curveball just misses strike zone, fastball up in the zone that Thompson wanted McCutchen to chase, which he did, but he lined the pitch between 1st and 2nd for a single
Third AB – Curveball for a strike, ball, another curve taken for a strike, another curve misses low, big breaking curve thrown in the strike zone was swung at for strike three
Fourth AB (against reliever Carlos Fisher) – Curveball taken for strike one, hanging curve McCutchen got under for a fly out
What do we take out of these pitch sequences?
McCutchen has an advanced understanding of the strike zone and he waits until he gets his pitch or until he absolutely has to swing. The only bad pitch he swung at was the first curveball he saw. From there on, McCutchen swung at two curveballs – a hanging one and a borderline pitch with two strikes. We also see that McCutchen has no problem turning on fastballs because he generates excellent bat speed.
Of course McCutchen will have to work on his ability to hit the breaking ball, but he’s young enough to make that improvement.
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
The second issue for McCutchen is how much power he has in his bat. His swing plane is very linear, leading to a lot of line drives, but not a lot of balls that have the height to get out of the ball park. He’s got room to add strength, but he’s still not the biggest guy in the world.
EIther way, McCutchen will be a major league contributor…in what capacity I’m still not sure.
Best Case Outcome – Top-7 center fielder
More Likely Outcome – Average offensive center fielder with top-level defense
3. Jose Tabata | OF | B – R | Double-A Altoona | Age – 20 | Signed – Venezuela, 2005
Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 40 | 55
Discipline – 45 | 55
Speed – 45 | 40
Defense – 50 | 55
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 40 | 50
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B/B+
Tabata is another guy I scouted after he was traded to Pittsburgh and while he only had 97 plate appearances, he really mashed the ball during those ABs, so maybe he did just need a change of scenery.
The Pirates will play Tabata in center field next season, and if he’s able to play the position well, his value sky rockets even if he’s not likely to be playing that position at the big league level. Most view Tabata as a corner outfielder because his heavy lower half prevents him from having the ideal range of a center fielder.
Either way, he’s a guy to keep a very close eye on entering next season.
Best Case Outcome – Top-5 corner outfielder
More Likely Outcome – Average corner outfielder…big gap between his upside, his mid-level, and his worst case projection
4. Bryan Morris | RHP | Single-A Hickory | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 1 (26), 2006
Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 55 Future
Curveball – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 40 | 45
Control – 45 | 50/55
Command – 40 | 50
Pitchability – 45 | 50
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – C+/B-
Body Type – tall, but fairly slim…an athletic build
Stuff
Fastball – clocked between 91 and 94, touching 95 with some sink
Curveball – sharp biting, 12-to-7 curve that looks harder than the mid-70′s velocity indicates…doesn’t always have command of the pitch
Change-Up- still a work in progress…doesn’t have much experience in throwing it
Scouting Report
Morris was traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh last Summer as a part of the Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay trade.
Morris has proven to be quite brittle as a player. He broke a bone in his left hand prior to the 2006 draft. He missed the entire 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery. He then developed pain in his bicep as the 2008 season winded down and had surgery this past offseason to repair a broken bone in one of his toes, which will cause him to miss at least a month of the 2009 season. That’s a lot of injury for a 21 y/o to endure is such a short span of time.
Nevertheless, Morris does have good upside even if he is unlikely to reach it. He’s not the potential front of the rotation pitcher he once was, but the idea of him becoming a middle of the rotation starter is not out of the question.
For that to happen, Morris must improve his change-up and develop more consistent command. Morris must also improve his stamina as he never pitched into the 7th inning last year, and only pitched into the 6th in four starts.
Scouts have always questioned his mechanics, in part because Morris throws across his body. Next year shapes up to be a big one for Morris as he’ll be a full two years past his Tommy John surgery.
Best Case Outcome – No. 4/3 starter
More Likely Outcome – Set-up man out of the bullpen
5. Shelby Ford | 2b | B – L | Double-A Altoona | Age – 24 | Drafted – Round 3 (80), 2006
Player Grades
Contact – 50/55 Now | 55 Future
Power – 45 | 50
Discipline – 45 | 50
Speed – 50 | 50
Defense – 50 | 55
Arm – 50 | 50
Instincts – 55 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – C+
Body Type – Not the biggest guy, but pretty tall with a fairly athletic build
Scouting Report
Ford is more in this spot based on a lack of quality options rather than on the merits of his talent as the Pittsburgh system thins out quickly. Nevertheless, Ford has the decent potential.
He’s a true switch hitter with the ability to hit from both sides of the plate. I like his swing better from left side as he makes consistently harder contact. It’s more of a line-drive oriented swing though he has shown gap power. Ford increased the number of fly balls from the right side, which resulted in an increase in power…the sample size is too small to say to if that change is real.
*Credit to David Pratt (click for more videos)
Ford improved his contact rate last year, but in the process his BB% lowered to below average levels. If he wants to contribute at the top of the order, Ford will need to walk more.
Ford is a solid runner that offers some versatility defensively. He’s not a finished product at second base, but should be anywhere from average to above average defensively when all is said and done.
Best Case Outcome – Average everyday second baseman
More Likely Outcome – Below average everyday second baseman…ideally, he’s your top utility guy off the bench
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Also See: Pittsburgh Pirates Team Page
Up Next: Pittsburgh Pirates, Prospects 6 – 15
Other references used for this article: First Inning and Minor League Splits
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