San Diego Padres Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Padres Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 55 | 65
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 50 | 45
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 55 | 60
ETA – 2012
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – He’s round and heavy

Scouting Report

Jaff Decker’s heavyset build may prevent him from playing the field well, but it has no negative impact on his bat.

Decker controls the strike zone like a veteran big league hitter. He knows what to and what not to swing at. He’s able to pick up the spin of a breaking ball and adjust to it in mid-air. He’s shown he can cover all parts of the plate and he’s displayed an ability to turn on pitches on the inner half of the plate.

Decker doesn’t have huge power, but it’s definitely above average. He gets great leverage on his swing, allowing him to golf balls over the right field wall. However, he’s also able to handle pitches up in the zone by whipping the bat head to the ball. Decker does an excellent job of letting the ball travel deep into his zone and because of plus bat speed, he can afford to wait until the last possible instance to swing.

While Decker is an extremely patient hitter, he sometimes lets good pitches go by, which can lead to bad counts, which can lead to strike outs. His swing is short enough and his ability to put the bat head on the ball is good enough to where he shouldn’t be striking out in 20% of his ABs.

The comparisons you often here most in association with Decker is John Kruk and Matt Stairs — and it’s not just physical appearance. Decker’s swing looks like a cross between Kruk and Stairs’ actual swings.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Now, a lot is made about Decker’s weight. I agree it’s a concern, especially since it’s having an impact on his athleticism, speed, and defense. But to watch him and try to project what he’s going to look like in five years, people seem to assume he’s going to just going to gradually let himself become obese.

He’s going to have to work a little harder than most, eat a little better than most, but with the help of the Padres’ organization, I think he’s going to be fine. And I think you’ll see somebody who is motivated by the background chatter about his weight.

In addition, I don’t see him as somebody who is unathletic in nature. He’s a good athlete for his size…he played center field in 2008, stole nine bases in 2008 and managed to steal 10 bases last year. He was looked at by some teams as a pitcher coming out of the 2008 draft as well.

Best Case Outcome – Borderline All Star in right field…I think he has a chance to get on base 40% of the time and hit anywhere between 20 – 30 home runs a year.

More Likely Outcome – Above average corner outfielder

Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 60 Future
Slider – 55 | 55
Change-Up – 40 | 50
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 45 | 55
Pitchability – 50 | 55
ETA – 2011
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Very long and lanky — long legs, long arms, long fingers

Stuff

Fastball – He really has two types of fastball…one is 92 – 95 mph four-seamer with good life and tail. The other is a 91 – 93 mph pitch that has a heavy sink. Now, Castro has never been a big ground ball pitcher and this sinker I saw was in Spring Training, so perhaps it’s something he more recently picked up

Slider – Will range between 79 – 83 mph…the bite is typically short and hard, but it will get loopy and slurve-like at times…thrown with the same intent as the fastball

Change-Up – A mid-80′s offering that is less refined than his other two pitches though it does have average potential…has to work on maintaining his arm speed

Scouting Report

If anything, Simon Castro’s 2009 season was more consistent than anything. He consistently went out and put up good start after good start. The biggest change was Castro’s ability to throw strikes. While his overall command still needs to improve, Castro was consistently around the strike zone, which was good enough at the Single-A level considering the kind of stuff Castro possesses.

Castro has unique looking mechanics. He doesn’t look much like a pitcher. He looks like he just rears back and throws, getting excellent whip like action on his arm, which results in the late life on Castro’s pitches.

Now that he throws strikes, the next step for Castro is to refine his command. His fastball will sometimes run back over the middle of the plate and he will sometimes hang his slider and those are issues he must address before reaching the Majors.

Best Case Outcome – No. 2 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 3 starter

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. James Darnell | 3b | Grade – B+ – Really solid all around player with plus raw power and good plate discipline…position is a question mark

4. Donavan Tate | CF | Grade – B – I’m being conservative with Tate…a tremendous athlete with a ton of tools, but there are concerns about his pitch recognition and swing, which I discuss in his report

5. Logan Forsythe | 3b/2b | Grade – B/B- – Versatile player with excellent plate discipline

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UP NEXT – San Diego Padres Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits