San Francisco Giants Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Giants Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

If you need to reach me in any way, please contact me via e-mail or post a comment at the bottom of the page and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible. The first two prospects are available for everybody to read.

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Player Grades
Contact – 55 Now | 60 Future
Power – 45 | 50/55
Discipline – 60 | 65
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 55 | 60
Arm – 55/60 | 55/60
Instincts – 60 | 70
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A

For a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Buster Posey, click here

Body Type – Athletic and solid build

Scouting Report

Posey is one of baseball’s best prospects. In an impressive crop of minor league catching prospects, Posey might have the best combination of offensive and defensive ability.

Posey is one of the more advanced and disciplined hitters in minor league baseball. Posey hits for average and see’s a lot of pitches, so he’s going to give the Giants somebody who can gets on base an awful lot. His approach is extremely sound and his pitch recognition is currently good, but improving. There are times he does get fooled by the spin of the ball. As he result, he can get way out in front of the pitch, resulting in a swing-and-miss or a weak ground ball. You can see this in the article I linked to above. Posey is also an excellent hitter with two strikes and will consistently foul off pitches until he gets one he likes.

Posey has a pretty right handed swing, which is something you don’t hear a lot. It’s a simple set up…he has a medium-high leg kick in which rocks his body back and then plants hard. He loads his hands, but keeps his swing short. He then rips the bat through the zone, accelerating late thanks to quick hands and the fast-twitch muscle fibers in his forearms. He then gets very good extension just about at the point of contact.

He’s adjusted the path of his hands and the angle of his bat since his 2007 season in the Cape Cod League. The adjustments have allowed Posey to keep the bat head in the hitting zone for a longer period of time as well as made it easier for Posey to keep his hands back and turn them together with the hips. There is a lot more rotational power in this swing, more involvement of the hips. His swing used to get handsy at times, which sapped him of some of his power, and his loading process didn’t help him generate as much power as he hoped for.

Despite his pretty swing, Posey doesn’t have monstrous home run power. He grades out more in the above average range and should hit 18 – 25 home runs a year.

Behind the plate, Posey is very athletic with good footwork and a quick release. His arm grades out as above average in strength and plus in accuracy and he’s consistently thrown out a high percentage of attempted base stealers in his career. He still has to work on his receiving skills and he seemed to wear down last year in the Arizona Fall League, so he must improve his endurance as well.

Best Case Outcome – All Star everyday catcher

More Likely Outcome – Borderline All Star everyday catcher

Player Grades
Fastball – 45/50 Now | 60 Future
Slider – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 45 | 50
Control – 55 | 60
Command – 50 | 55
Pitchability – 55 | 60
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B

Body Type – Athletic, muscular, and physical frame

Stuff

Fastball – At his best it’s in the mid 90′s, but in the second half of last season, Bumgarner would more consistently sit in the 87 – 92 range. It was expected that an off-season of rest would help Bumgarner regain some of the velocity he lost in 2009. However, Bumgarner was showing the same diminished velocity during Spring Training. His start to the 2010 season has been much of the same as well. It’s a huge concern obviously.

Slider – Inconsistent…sometimes it has good bite and depth, but other times it will simply spin toward home plate

Change-Up – Still developing, but he does have a feel for it and it does have good deception at times

Scouting Report

Nobody is certain why Madison Bumgarner’s velocity dropped last year. The Giants seem to blaming it on a litany of factors, but it doesn’t add up. I’ve looked at Bumgarner’s mechanics and I haven’t been able to detect any noticeable difference in his mechanics between 2008 and 2009. However, I haven’t had the video angles to really detect any subtle changes to his mechanics.

One thing I notice is that Bumgarner’s front side mechanics are inconsistent. He firms up every time, but he sometimes he lets his glove drop down to his side, while other times he’ll maintain a firm glove out in front of the chest. Other times it’s somewhere in-between. The impact on his control is negligible. But from a health standpoint, it becomes a red flag.

All that being said, Bumgarner said his arm felt strong last year. He maintains that his arm strength is just fine this year. He’s not reporting soreness either

Bumgarner is a difficult player to rank because of the drop off in stuff. While his results didn’t indicate much of a problem, he had a statistically weaker profile last year, especially with the number of strikeouts, which experienced a big drop off in strikeouts.

While he didn’t miss as many bats, Bumgarner was still difficult to center the ball against. The reason was because his control was still pinpoint and he knows how to pitch. He typically works down in the zone and he works both sides of the plate. He does an excellent job of changing the eye level of hitters.

Bumgarner’s command hasn’t been as precise as it was in 2010 thus far, so he’s been hit around a bit. If he can get back to pitching well, he could be in line for a call up at some point during the 2010 season.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter, but he’d need to regain the kind of stuff he had in the first half of last year

More Likely Outcome – Based on his current stuff, he looks more like a back of the rotation starter

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Zack Wheeler | RHP | Grade – B – High upside arm from the 2009 draft has gotten off to a little bit of a rough start, but he’s a potential front of the rotation starter

4. Thomas Neal | LF | Grade – B – Potential above average left fielder…

5. Tommy Joseph | C | Grade – B- – Strong catching prospect with big time power and a patient approach…will need to shorten swing a little to make more contact

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UP NEXT – San Francisco Giants Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits