St. Louis Cardinals Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Cardinals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 60 Now | 70 Future
Curveball – 50 | 60
Change-Up – 40 | 50/55
Control – 40 | 55
Command – 40 | 55
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – 2013
Final Grade – B+/B

I compiled a scouting report on Shelby Miller before last year’s draft and unlike his prep counterparts, Miller actually did get some pro ball pitching in last year. However, it was just three innings worth.

Nothing has really changed since my last report on Miller. Big time upside and projection, and a tremendous fastball are his biggest strengths. His biggest weaknesses would be in his inconsistent control/command, a lack of a change-up, and a potentially good curveball that needs more consistency.

Miller’s mechanics lend itself to good future command. His arm works extremely well and the velocity he generates almost seems effortless. He has huge upside, but must answer the question marks I listed above.

Best Case Outcome – Top of the rotation starter

More Likely Outcome – Too soon to say

Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 55 Future
Curveball – 60 | 60
Change-Up – 45 | 50
Control – 45 | 50
Command – 50 | 55
Pitchability – 55 | 60
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – B

Body Type – An athletic build

Stuff

Fastball – Clocked between 88 – 93 mph with good sink, helping him generate a good number of ground balls. Garcia has shown he can command the pitch to both sides of the plate. The pitch is deceptive because it seems to move late and hitters aren’t able to center the ball all that consistently. Of course, part of that might be because he’s added a cutter to his repertoire and that might be what I’m seeing part of the time.

Curveball – Throws two versions — one being a power version that he buries in the dirt and the other being a softer curve with a bigger break that he can throw for strikes.

Both versions play up because they come from the same arm slot and travel on the same trajectory as his fastball though the bigger curve starts out on a higher level. Garcia’s curveball breaks late as well, giving hitters little time to react to the pitch.

Change-Up – He has one, but he hardly seemed to use it in the outing I saw. I did see him throw a few in Spring Training…it fades a little, but it doesn’t have a great deal of separation between the velocity of his fastball.

Scouting Report

The big question for Garcia is his health since he’s not far off from his TJ surgery last year. Surprisingly, he showed relatively little rust upon his return, which bodes well for his future.

I had some questions about Garcia’s mechanics before he was injured, especially in respect to his arm action. So I went and looked at the changes made by Garcia since he went down with injury. The 2008 Garcia is on the left, while the 2009 version is on the right:

*Credit to Minor League Baseball

The deliveries are mostly the same except for one glaring difference: the arm action. He’s getting his arm up faster. The external rotation into release looks similar, but it’s too difficult to tell. Is he putting less torque on the arm? Perhaps…nobody can be sure unless you get high speed video of the two deliveries. But I will say that at the point of maximum stress on the elbow and shoulder — the segment where the arm accelerates forward — the deliveries look similar. But only time will tell if the adjustments made by Garcia help keep him healthy long term.

Garcia will often show good command for solid stretches, but he needs to be more consistent. Every once in a while, he loses control of the strike zone. He’s learned that upper level hitters will lay off his curveball in the dirt pitch unless it’s two strikes, where hitters are forced to swing. In the instances I watched him last year, he did a much better job of setting hitters up.

I was really impressed with his feel for pitching — he worked both sides of the plate, mixed his pitches well, changed the eye level of hitters, and kept them off balance. He was unpredictable for the most part.

Garcia is the favorite to win the 5th spot in the Cardinals’ starting rotation.

Best Case Outcome – No. 3 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 4 starter

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Daryl Jones | OF | Grade – B- – Injuries hurt production last year and if healthy he should be able bounce back…value of bat is tied to position as it profiles much better in center field

4. Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | Grade – B- – Tremendous power arm has closer potential…needs to shore up command

5. Lance Lynn | RHP | Grade – B- – Unspectacular right fits the back of the rotation mold

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UP NEXT – St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits