Tampa Bay Rays Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Rays Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

If you need to reach me in any way, please contact me via e-mail or post a comment at the bottom of the page and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible. The first two prospects are available for everybody to read.

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Player Grades
Contact – 55 Now | 65 Future
Power – 40 | 45/50
Discipline – 55 | 65
Speed – 65 | 65
Defense – 60 | 60/65
Arm – 50 | 50
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – Late 2010
Final Grade – A-

For my pitch-by-pitch breakdowns of Desmond Jennings, you can click here or you can click here and see him go head-to-head with Reds pitching prospect Travis Wood.

Body Type – He’s small, but he’s very athletic, similar to the Andrew McCutchen mold

Scouting Report

Finally healthy, Jennings put on a show in 2009. He tore up two levels and is close to being big league ready if he isn’t already. For the moment however, Jennings is blocked in Tampa and will instead be slated for Triple-A Durham.

Jennings is your prototypical lead off hitter. He hits for average and he works the count, both of which get you on base. Getting on base is the lead off hitter’s main job. Jennings hits for average because he makes contact at a high rate and his excellent hand-eye coordination allows him to consistently square up on the ball and make hard contact.

Jennings employs a very short swing with a minimal load, but he’s able to generate plus bat speed anyway because of the quick-twitch muscle fibers in his forearms. The bat speed allows Jennings to wait on the pitch and let it travel deep into his hitting zone before committing to it.

Power is still a question mark for Jennings. He tapped into some of his raw power last year, but his size, approach, swing, and ground ball tendencies limit his power potential. Still, you’d be surprise by how much pop he has.

Jennings is a plus-plus runner with tremendous instincts on the base paths and in center field. He’ll have a chance to show off his skills at the big league level if an opportunity presents itself via injury or some other unforeseen way. But for now, he’ll just have to be patient.

Best Case Outcome – All Star center fielder

More Likely Outcome – Above average everyday offensive center fielder with plus level defense

Player Grades
4-Seam – 60 Now | 60 Future
2-Seam – 55 | 55
Slider – 50/55 | 55/60
Curveball – 60 | 60
Change-Up – 45 | 50
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 55 | 60
Pitchability – 50 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – Solid frame…somewhat lean

Stuff

Fastball – Davis uses two fastballs, a 4-seamer that can run anywhere from 92 all the way to 97…it’s a somewhat straight pitch with a little arm-side run and excellent life and carry through the strike zone. Davis’ 2-seamer comes in between 89 – 94 with some arm-side run and sink

Slider – A hard and late breaking pitch that he commands well…thrown in the mid-80′s with good tilt. The pitch can be inconsistent, ranging from fringe-average to plus

Curveball – Thrown in the mid-70′s, the 1-to-7 curveball (looking at it from the center field camera) is another late breaking pitch that he can throw for strikes or bury in the dirt. The pitch flattens out on him at times, but for the most part, its a consistent offering.

Change-Up – The weakest of all his pitches, the pitch is thrown in the 80 – 83 mph range with decent tumble. It’s not as consistent as it could be, but given the quality of all his other pitches, he doesn’t need it as much

Scouting Report

Wade Davis’ mechanics have really grown on me…very simple, very repeatable. Notice the rhythm in Davis’ mechanics, particularly at the start of his wind-up.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Hands start in front of his face…he steps back, hands come down and head looks down. The clip below picks up as he steps into his leg lift, getting his hips moving forward early in the process, gathering momentum. Leg rises, hands move up, leg drops, head rises and locks in on target, and then the hands break. Take note of how the throwing arm and glove side mirror each other. That’s a sign of mechanical efficiency though it’s not always necessary.

Every time from the wind-up this is the routine, this is the rhythm of his delivery. The better the pitcher’s rhythm, the better his timing, and the better his command.

Davis moves his body quickly…not hitches, no pauses. His arm action is clean, and he loads his scapula very well. Scap loading is the pinching together of the shoulder blades or the horizontal loading of the arm. He’s creating rotational velocity and scap loading gives Davis a whip-like arm action, which gives his pitches that extra life they appear to have, that late movement.

Davis commands all his pitches well and he works all quadrants of the strike zone, both sides of the plate. He’s only recently really started to grasp how to set hitters up and put them away. His K-rate was surprisingly low for essentially the first half of last season before things started to click.

For all the praise I gave to Davis about his mechanics above, there are still times he loses his rhythm and release point, and therefore the strike zone.

Davis gets in trouble when he becomes predictable. He also has occasional issues with the long ball.

While Davis struggled in Spring Training this year, he still made the Rays as the team’s 5th starter. He’s been a slow starter the past couple of years before finishing each season strong, but the Rays hope Davis will carry over his strong finish into the start of this year’s season.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter, though moreso a weaker one

More Likely Outcome – No. 2 starter

Brief Rundown on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Grade – A-/B+ – An excellent prospect with few weaknesses other than only average fastball velocity and sometimes having trouble with the long ball…click here to see Hellickson go head-to-head with Austin Jackson or click here to see him face off against the Lousiville Bats, one of minor league baseball’s best line-ups in 2009.

4. Matt Moore | LHP | Grade – B – Misses an insane amount of bats, but also struggles to throw strikes…see him in action as well as read my extensive write-up on Moore

5. Alexander Colome | RHP | Grade – B – Another live-armed pitcher making his way through the organization…has to do a better job of controlling the strike zone, but his stuff is excellent

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UP NEXT – Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits