Texas Rangers Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE - Texas Rangers Top Prospects , No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 65 Now | 70 Future
Curveball – 50 | 60
Change-Up – 45 | 55
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 50 | 55
Pitchability – 45 | 55
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – Very lean and athletic

Stuff

Fastball – An electric pitch with tremendous carry through the strike zone. The pitch has a natural tailing action and a little bit of sink when thrown down in the strike zone. You can get a good indication of the pitch’s tailing action in the clip below:

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

As a starter, Feliz generally sits between 94 – 96, while he’s typicaly clocked between 97 – 99 in shorter stints out of the bullpen. In both roles, Feliz can touch triple digits.

Feliz’s fastball is generally around the strike zone, but he’s had trouble commanding it in the past.

Curveball – Clocked in the low 80′s, Feliz’s curveball is not a pitch you’d classify as having a nasty break. I’d classify the actual break itself as above average, but it plays up because of how deceptive it is.

Yes, when the arm slot lowers, the curve flattens out, but when he gets on top of it, the pitch looks just like a fastball coming out of his hand. The trajectory of his curveball and fastball are essentially the same until the curveball begins its break as it closes in on home plate. As a result, you see a lot of buckled knees and awkward swings.

*Credit to Minor League Baseball

Making Feliz’s curveball truly effective is that he can throw it for strikes. I’d like to see him be more consistent with the pitch, however.

Change-Up – It’s still developing, but he has a good feel for the pitch. He needs to work on maintaining his arm speed. Velocity-wise, I’ve seen the pitch range in the 87 – 90 mph.

Now, there is some debate about Feliz’s other offerings. He has something in his arsenal that is a low 90′s pitch with sink…many feel it’s a two-seamer, others see it as a split-fingered fastball because it seems to dart downward late. And then there are some that view it as a hard change-up.

Scouting Report

Neftali Feliz left many observers stunned by how quickly he disposed of Major League hitters after he was promoted and put in the bullpen last August.

Still, the Rangers plan to use Feliz as a starter, which is the right move in my view because that’s where he can have the most value.

Feliz did struggle some as a starter last year, displaying a lack of consistency from start-to-start. But he’s somebody that should figure it out eventually.

Feliz has the repertoire of pitches to stick as a starter and I think the command will eventually get there. He holds his velocity deep into games and his mechanics are rather smooth for somebody that reaches the velocity he does.

Many ask how Feliz makes it look so easy…it starts with genetics. Feliz is blessed with tremendous arm speed and athleticism. Second, Feliz’s mechanics are extremely efficient…I don’t see any instances where Feliz loses or bleeds energy during his wind-up.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

First thing is to notice how Feliz’s torso is slightly slightly bent over at the start of the video clip. Watch as Feliz loads his arm, how the torso pops back up, creating an arch in his back and giving the appearance of Feliz puffing out his chest. This is part of the process of scapula loading, which is the horizontal loading of the arm or pinching together of the shoulder blades.

Feliz generates tremendous separation between his torso and hips…I pause the graphic where he looks like he’s achieved maximum separation. We see a lot of misdirection…Feliz’s chest is pointed toward third base, the hips are in the direction of home plate. The arm is loaded horizontally, behind Feliz’s back.

It’s at this point, the torso is uncoiled, bringing the arm along for the ride in a whip-like fashion.

The timing has to be precise for one to truly maximize their velocity, and Feliz’s timing is just that. One thing you can’t see in graphic above is that Feliz doesn’t rotate his shoulders until very late in the process, a trait you see in the very best pitchers.

Lastly, while Feliz’s mechanics do look smooth and effortless, check him out at the end of the above clip in which he’s unleashing a 100 mph fireball to the opposing hitters. That finish indicates effort and intent, but he’s able to do it in a way that looks under control.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – Probably a No. 2 starter if he can’t fully command his pitches on a consistent basis…the good thing for the Rangers is if Feliz doesn’t make it as a starter, they know they can put him right back in the bullpen where he’ll immediately become one of the best relievers in the game.

Player Grades
Fastball – 55 Now | 60 Future
Curveball – 55 | 65
Change-Up – 50 | 60
Control – 45 | 60
Command – 45 | 55
Pitchability – 45 | 60
ETA – Late 2011
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – An athletic, and projectable build

Stuff

Fastball – Clocked between 92 – 94, touching 95 and 96…pitch has some sink to go along with good life and carry through the strike zone

Curveball – Sharp, knee buckling pitch that reminds me of Clayton Kershaw’s curveball…I’d like to see it be a little more consistent, especially from a command standpoint, but he has the ability to throw it for strikes…looks like a fastball coming out of his hand

Change-Up – Thrown between 10 – 13 mph slower than his fastball, while maintaining fastball arm speed, this pitch has shown the most growth over the past year…will throw in almost any count

Scouting Report

For his age, Martin Perez is the most advanced pitcher in minor league baseball. When he was promoted to Double-A Frisco from Single-A Hickory, it made him the youngest player by far in the Texas League. And he ended up holding his own against much older competition.

Perez improved across the board in 2009. He walked less hitters, missed more bats (by a pretty significant margin), became slightly less hittable, and threw more ground balls. The Rangers really couldn’t have asked for anything more.

Perez still has work to do — not surprising for a pitcher who will turn just 19 on April 4th. While Perez consistently throws strikes, he still has to work on commanding his pitches within the strike zone. This weakness caught up to him in Frisco where he was far too hittable as batters posted a BABIP of .371 against Perez.

And to nobody’s fault, the Rangers have limited Perez’s workload in an effort to protect the young pitching gem’s left arm. Because of this, we have yet to see how Perez handles pitching late into games, how well he pitches when his arm is tiring.

Mechanics

Perez has an ability to consistently repeat his deliver. Perez has compact, athletic mechanics, and moves quickly throughout his wind-up with no noticeable pauses and hitches.

*Credit to brettccm

I see some things in his arm action that might give some a reason for concern…his foream lays back considerably during the acceleration phase of his arm. It’s something you see often in many high velocity throwers, though the amount of force applied on the arm varies from pitcher-to-pitcher. Neftali Feliz has this trait too, though in my view it looks like Perez has the more violent arm action.

Perez’s finish is still a little rough, but I see a lot of potential in his front side mechanics as he already does a good job firming up his glove and maintaining it out in front of his chest. Proper front-side mechanics are critical for both health and command/control of one’s pitches.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 2 starter only because it’s very difficult for one to become a true No. 1

Brief Notes on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Justin Smoak | 1b | Grade – A- – Extremely advanced and disciplined hitter with the ability to hit for both power and average…oblique strain hampered power last year and contributed to his struggles in Triple-A

4. Tanner Scheppers | RHP | Grade – B – Power arm looks fully healthy…unsure of future role and whether he’ll work out of the bullpen or as a starter

5. Robbie Ross | LHP | Grade – B- – Number of options considered here, but I seem to have the least amount of questions about Ross…misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground, throws strikes

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UP NEXT – Texas Rangers, Prospects 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits