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Baseball-Intellect’s Top-100 Prospects of 2011

May 30, 2011 BY ALEX EISENBERG 18 Comments

Before I begin, here is the process I used in putting together these rankings:

    1. These rankings I try to base solely on how I would rank each prospect coming into 2011. This means whatever a prospect has done in 2011 doesn’t count in the context of the list below.
    2. I tried to stay true to a player’s grade and team ranking.

At the bottom of the article, there is a list of prospects that just missed the cut and some names with the potential to be on next year’s list. I also break down the top 100 prospects by team.

Now, I’m obviously disappointed by how late I’m getting this out, but at the same time I’m completely worn out and understand there will no stoppage in work with the season now on-going. This means it might be time to bring in some new writers to help me carry the load, which would offer more value to readers here. More on that later.

One last thing I want to mention. With the prospect lists behind us (besides the scouting reports on each team’s No. 15 prospect, which I will send out within the next couple of weeks, all with updated information of course), you can expect brand new content, including video reports very shortly.

Also, I rarely press you the reader on this, but Baseball-Intellect needs funding to survive. If you have a couple dollars to spare, seriously think about purchasing a Premium Membership. Not only do you get valuable, meaningful content, but it shows an appreciation for the hard work put into this site…

So with that out of the way, I present you with Baseball-Intellect’s Top-100 prospects for the 2011 season…

1. Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels (1) | CF | Grade – A-

2. Bryce Harper | Washington Nationals (1) | RF | Grade – A-

If I was to consider what Harper has done so far in 2011, he’d be my No. 1 guy…he looks like the real deal and appears well on his way to being the No. 1 ranked prospect in 2012 and a top letter grade of A as well. But it is early…

3. Eric Hosmer | Kansas City Royals (1) | 1b | Grade – A-

Remember to read my in-depth breakdown of Hosmer by clicking here

4. Shelby Miller | St. Louis Cardinals (1) | RHP | Grade – A-

5. Julio Teheran | Atlanta Braves (1) | RHP | Grade – A-

6. Domonic Brown | Philadelphia Phillies (1) | RF | Grade – A-

7. Jeremy Hellickson | Tampa Bay Rays (1) | RHP | Grade – A-

8. Wil Myers | Kansas City Royals (2) | RF | Grade – A-

9. Jesus Montero | New York Yankees (1) | C/1b/DH | Grade – A-

10. Manny Machado | Baltimore Orioles (1) | SS | Grade – A-/B+

11. Chris Sale | Chicago White Sox (1) | LHP | Grade – A-/B+

I completely disagreed with Chicago’s decision to keep Sale in the Major League bullpen at a time when he needed to build up innings and experience as a starter in the Minor Leagues. Not surprisingly, he’s struggled (though not as bad as his ERA suggests), and they continue to use him out of the bullpen in one inning stints. I think they are hurting his development.

12. Aroldis Chapman | Cincinnati Reds (1) | LHP | Grade – A-/B+

I’d probably give Chapman a B+ if I could do it over again simply because I’m becoming more and more convinced he’s going to end up in the bullpen when all is said and done, and even there he has to learn to throw strikes.

13. Manny Banuelos | New York Yankees (2) | LHP | Grade – B+/A-

14. Kyle Drabek | Toronto Blue Jays (1) | RHP | Grade – B+

15. Martin Perez | Texas Rangers (1) | LHP | Grade – B+

16. Zack Britton | Baltimore Orioles (3) | LHP | Grade – B+

Even this high a ranking sells Britton short. He’s been phenominal in 2011 and what I did not anticipate was his sinker being so good that he’d be able to mask any weakness he does have, which is mainly his command which he still struggles with. I didn’t think he’d be able to reach the level of No. 1 starter, but it’s now impossible to say he doesn’t have that kind of ceiling. He still may not get there, but at least now we know it’s a legit possibility.

17. Jarred Cosart | Philadelphia Phillies (2) | RHP | Grade – B+

18. Wilin Rosario | Colorado Rockies (1) | C | Grade – B+

19. Devin Mesoraco | Cincinnati Reds (2) | C | Grade – B+

Be sure to check out my in-depth breakdown on Mesoraco at Reds Minor Leagues, who as I’m sure most already know is the go to website for all information about prospects in the Cincinnati Reds organization.

20. Jameson Taillon | Pittsburgh Pirates (1) | RHP | Grade – B+

21. Brandon Belt | San Francisco Giants (1) | 1b | Grade – B+

22. Jarrod Parker | Arizona Diamondbacks (1) | RHP | Grade – B+

His command isn’t all the way back to pre-Tommy John surgery form. It will take some time, but it’s good to see his velocity back.

23. Matt Moore | Tampa Bay Rays (2) | LHP | Grade – B+

Interesting to see how Moore has broken his pattern of not throwing strikes in the early portion of the season. Can he sustain his newfound control over a lengthy period of time? If he can, batters beware.

24. Mike Montgomery | Kansas City Royals (3) | LHP | Grade – B+

25. Desmond Jennings | Tampa Bay Rays (3) | CF | Grade – B+

26. Jacob Turner | Detroit Tigers (1) | RHP | Grade – B+

27. Jason Kipnis | Cleveland Indians (1) | 2b | Grade – B+

28. Dustin Ackley | Seattle Mariners (1) | 2b | Grade – B+

29. Mike Moustakas | Kansas City Royals (4) | 3b | Grade – B+

30. John Lamb | Kansas City Royals (5) | LHP | Grade – B+

31. Freddie Freeman | Atlanta Braves (2) | 1b | Grade – B+

32. Jon Singleton | Philadelphia Phillies (3) | 1b/OF | Grade – B+

He’s experienced a massive carry over effect from his disastrous second half of last season, only now he’s striking out at an extremely high rate. Not sure what’s going on with him.

33. Jurickson Profar | Texas Rangers (2) | SS | Grade – B+

34. Mike Minor | Atlanta Braves (3) | LHP | Grade – B+

Questioned my grading of Minor in Spring Training — or at least questioned my lower rating of Brandon Beachy as he was beating Minor out for a spot in the opening day rotation. I can’t justify one being a B+ and the other a B- when they are actually quite similar…even their grade boxes reflect that.

35. Randall Delgado | Atlanta Braves (4) | RHP | Grade – B+

36. Dellin Betances | New York Yankees (3) | RHP | Grade – B+

37. Jaff Decker | San Diego Padres (1) | OF | Grade – B+

38. Aaron Hicks | Minnesota Twins (1) | CF | Grade – B+

39. Derek Norris | Washington Nationals (2) | C | Grade – B+

40. Gary Sanchez | New York Yankees (4) | C | Grade – B+

There are several guys below him I’d probably rate higher than him. I like Sanchez, but I was a little too aggressive with this grade.

41. Jordan Lyles | Houston Astros (1) | RHP | Grade – B+/B

42. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners (2) | RHP | Grade – B+/B

He’s been fantastic early on, but it’s never been his stuff that has been at issue. It’s always been about health with me. If he stays healthy and continues to start, then he should obviously have been rated higher.

43. Kyle Gibson | Minnesota Twins (2) | RHP | Grade – B+/B

44. Wilmer Flores | New York Mets (1) | SS/3b/1b | Grade – B+/B

45. Drew Pomeranz | Cleveland Indians (2) | LHP | Grade – B/B+

46. Brett Jackson | Chicago Cubs (1) | CF | Grade – B/B+

47. Lonnie Chisenhall | Cleveland Indians (3) | 3b | Grade – B/B+

48. Grant Green | Oakland Athletics (1) | SS | Grade – B/B+

49. Miguel Sano | Minnesota Twins (3) | 3b | Grade – B/B+

50. Anthony Ranaudo | Boston Red Sox (1) | RHP | Grade – B/B+

51. Chris Archer | Tampa Bay Rays (4) | RHP | Grade – B/B+

He’s looking a lot like the 2007 and 2008 version of Chris Archer rather than the 2010 version. The only difference now is that he’s not even effectively wild — h’s actually given up a ton of hits. So there are some serious warning signs her that something is up, but I can’t say for sure because I haven’t seen him yet this year.

52. Jenrry Mejia | New York Mets (2) | RHP | Grade – B/B+

53. Danny Duffy | Kansas City Royals (6) | LHP | Grade – B

I think he’s raised his stock so far in the early going of this year. His stuff looks better this year, and now he has to work on being able to command that better stuff.

54. Jake Odorizzi | Kansas City Royals (7) | RHP | Grade – B

55. Jean Segura | Los Angeles Angels (2) | 2b/SS | Grade – B

56. Matt Harvey | New York Mets (3) | RHP | Grade – B

57. Tyler Skaggs | Arizona Diamondbacks (2) | LHP | Grade – B

58. Brett Lawrie | Toronto Blue Jays (2) | 3b | Grade – B

59. Anthony Rizzo | San Diego Padres (2) | 1b | Grade – B

Based on current play, he should be rated higher.

60. Nick Franklin | Seattle Mariners (3) | SS/2b | Grade – B

61. Zack Wheeler | San Francisco Giants (2) | RHP | Grade – B

62. Nick Castellanos | Detroit Tigers (2) | 3b | Grade – B

He’s taken a little longer to adjust to pro ball than I expected him to, but it is still early.

63. Yasmani Grandal | Cincinnati Reds (3) | C | Grade – B

64. Arodys Vizcaino | Atlanta Braves (5) RHP | Grade – B

65. Alex Wimmers | Minnesota Twins (4) | RHP | Grade – B

Very curious what has happened with Wimmers this year. Still awaiting a second start from him.

66. Casey Kelly | San Diego Padres (3) | RHP | Grade – B

67. Tyler Matzek | Colorado Rockies (2) | LHP | Grade – B

Obviously something is wrong with him. I have a couple of theories over what it is and I’ll explore them in an upcoming article.

68. Zack Cox | St. Louis Cardinals (2) | 3b | Grade – B

69. Carlos Martinez | St. Louis Cardinals (3) | RHP | Grade – B

If there is one prospect you don’t know on this list, it’s probably this one. But keep a very close eye on him as he has loads of upside in addition to both feel and polish for somebody his age.

70. Drake Britton | Boston Red Sox (2) | LHP | Grade – B

He’s been one of the most disappointing prospects so far in 2011.

71. Zach Lee | Los Angeles Dodgers (1) | RHP | Grade – B

72. Jose Iglesias | Boston Red Sox (3) | SS | Grade – B

73. Hak-Ju Lee | Tampa Bay Rays (5) | SS | Grade – B

Unlike Archer, Lee has found a great deal of success since being traded to Tampa from Chicago. What’s interesting is how his power numbers have spiked even though he’s playing in a very pitcher-friendly league. I’ll remind you of my past reports on Lee stating he has some wiry strength and more power than he lets on, but his approach doesn’t really let him tap into it. I’m wondering if something has changed with his approach.

74. Trey McNutt | Chicago Cubs (2) | RHP | Grade – B

75. Josh Sale | Tampa Bay Rays (6) | RF/1b | Grade – B

76. Chris Carter | Oakland Athletics (2) | 1b/DH | Grade – B

77. Alex Colome | Tampa Bay Rays (7) | RHP | Grade – B

78. Michael Choice | Oakland Athletics (3) | OF | Grade – B

79. Jason Knapp | Cleveland Indians (4) | RHP | Grade – B

He hasn’t thrown a pitch yet, but that’s because the Indians want to limit his innings this year. He’s in extended Spring Training and will be assigned to A+ Kinston soon.

80. Brody Colvin | Philadelphia Phillies (4) | RHP | Grade – B

Colvin has been dealing with a back injury and missed most of April because of it. He’s now shaking off the rust. For those that didn’t see it, click here for the write up I did on Colvin for the excellent Phillies minor league site, Phuture Phillies.

81. Deck McGuire | Toronto Blue Jays (3) | RHP | Grade – B

82. J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays (4) | C | Grade – B

83. Christian Colon | Kansas City Royals (8) | SS/2b | Grade – B

His stock is actually down. He’s just not hitting for power or hitting the ball with authority right now.

84. Jake McGee | Tampa Bay Rays (8) | LHP | Grade – B

This may have been an overrate as there are a couple guys below him that I would rank higher than him at this moment in time.

85. Chris Dwyer | Kansas City Royals (9) | LHP | Grade – B

86. Dee Gordon | Los Angeles Dodgers (2) | SS | Grade – B/B-

87. Zach Stewart | Toronto Blue Jays (5) | RHP | Grade – B/B-

88. Alex White | Cleveland Indians (5) | RHP | Grade – B/B-

89. Travis d’Arnaud | Toronto Blue Jays (6) | C | Grade – B/B-

He’s off to another fast start, but he collapsed last year. Can he keep it up this time around?

90. Billy Hamilton | Cincinnati Reds (4) | SS/2b | Grade – B/B-

He’s struggling mightily right now. Perhaps he was a little overhyped coming into the 2011 season?

91. Tony Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates (2) | C | Grade – B/B-

92. Christian Friedrich | Colorado Rockies (3) | LHP | Grade – B/B-

93. Andy Oliver | Detroit Tigers (3) | LHP | Grade – B/B-

94. Hank Conger | Los Angeles Angels (3) | C | Grade – B/B-

95. Garrett Richards | Los Angeles Angels (4) | RHP | Grade – B/B-

96. Josh Vitters | Chicago Cubs (4) | 3b | Grade – B/B-

97. Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies (4) | 3b | Grade – B/B-

98. Rubby de la Rosa | Los Angeles Dodgers (3) | RHP | Grade – B-/B

99. Dan Klein | Baltimore Orioles (3) | RHP | Grade – B-/B

100. Reymond Fuentes | San Diego Padres (4) | CF | Grade – B-/B

JUST MISSING THE CUT (in no particular order)

Kaleb Cowart (Angels | 3b)
Nick Weglarz (Indians | OF/1b/DH)
Daniel Fields (Tigers | CF)
Drew Vettleson (Rays | RF)
Oscar Tejeda (Red Sox | 2b)
Robbie Erlin (Rangers | LHP)
Jerry Sands (Dodgers | OF/1b)
Luis Heredia (Pirates | RHP)
Oswaldo Arcia (Twins | OF)
Allen Webster (Dodgers | RHP)
Yonder Alonso (Reds | 1b)


Garin Cecchini (Red Sox | 3b/SS)
Kolbrin Vitek (Red Sox | 3b/OF)
Oswaldo Arcia (Twins | OF)
Jesse Biddle (Phillies | LHP)
Christian Yelich (Marlins | 1b)
Jemile Weeks (Athletics | 2b)
Matt Lipka (Braves | 2b)
Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays | RHP)
Carlos Perez (Blue Jays | C)
Joe Benson (Twins | OF)
Liam Hendriks (Twins | RHP)
Tyrell Jenkins (Cardinals | RHP)
Stetson Allie (Pirates | RHP)
Bryce Brentz (Red Sox | OF)
Jake Petricka (White Sox | RHP)
Brad Peacock (Nationals | RHP)
Mike Olt (Rangers | 3b)
Starln Marte (Pirates | CF)
David Perez (Rangers | RHP)
Trevor May (Phillies | RHP)
A.J. Cole (Nationals | RHP)
Oscar Taveras (Cardinals | OF)
Gary Brown (Giants | CF)
Keyvius Sampson (Padres | RHP)
James Darnell (Padres | 3b)
Jedd Gyorko (Padres | 3b)
Peter Tago (Rockies | RHP)
Matt Davidson (Diamondbacks | 3b)
Jake Marisnick (Blue Jays | OF)
Austin Romine (Yankees | C)
Sean Coyle (Red Sox | 2b/SS)


AL East (24)

BALTIMORE Orioles (3) – 10, 16, 99

BOSTON Red Sox (3) – 50, 70, 72

NEW YORK Yankees (4) – 9, 13, 36, 40

TAMPA BAY Rays (8) – 7, 23, 25, 51, 73, 75, 77, 84

TORONTO Blue Jays (6) – 14, 58, 81, 82, 87, 89

AL Central (22)

CHICAGO White Sox (1) – 11

CLEVELAND Indians (5) – 27, 45, 47, 79, 88

DETROIT Tigers (3) – 26, 62, 93

KANSAS CITY Royals (9) – 3, 8, 24, 29, 30, 53, 54, 83, 85

MINNESOTA Twins (4) – 38, 43, 49, 65

AL West (12)

LOS ANGELES Angels (4) – 1, 55, 94, 95

OAKLAND Athletics (3) – 48, 76, 78

SEATTLE Mariners (3) – 28, 42, 60

TEXAS Rangers (2) – 15, 33

NL East (14)

ATLANTA Braves (5) – 5, 31, 34, 35, 64

FLORIDA Marlins (0)

NEW YORK Mets (3) – 44, 52, 56

PHILADELPHIA Phillies (4) – 6, 17, 32, 80

WASHINGTON Nationals (2) – 2, 39

NL Central (13)

CHICAGO Cubs (3) – 46, 74, 96

CINCINNATI Reds (4) – 12, 19, 63, 90

HOUSTON Astros (1) – 41

MILWAUKEE Brewers (0)

PITTSBURGH Pirates (2) – 20, 91

ST. LOUIS Cardinals (3) – 4, 68, 69

NL West (16)

ARIZONA Diamonbacks (2) – 22, 57

COLORADO Rockies (4) – 18, 67, 92, 97

LOS ANGELES Dodgers (3) – 71, 86, 98

SAN DIEGO Padres (5) – 37, 59, 66, 100

SAN FRANCISCO Giants (2) – 21, 61


  • Rich Wilson said:

    This is lame.

    A third of the season is over and you’re still showing pre-2011 rankings. My suggestion is to either get the rankings done before the season or simply update them based on what you feel now. What’s the point in providing on June 1st, where you would ranked guys on March 1st.

    Look at #58 and #59. You mean to tell me that Lawrie and Rizzo are there? Lawrie is liable to be in the majors by next week and Rizzo as well, if not shortly afterwards.

    Come on…do better!

  • William Munson said:

    Not sure how he would get the top 100 out before the top 20 for each team.

    What do Lawrie and Rizzo being ready to hit the majors have to do with where they are ranked? Seems to me he is trying to figure out where they rank regarding potential impact to the league…not when they will hit the majors.

    I’m impressed where Shelby Miller landed on the list. I do believe he is leading the minors in K’s right now and just got promoted to AA so have no quarrel with the stratospheric perception.

    In that regard, Chapman’s travails in the majors can’t help but lower expectations for the kid…no matter how fast that ball comes out of his hand. I would think you’d have to allow a little bit of what’s happened in 2011 to creep into the rankings.

    Good job.

  • Farm Report « Play The Red Cards said:

    [...] Baseball Intellect?????????????Shelby Miller???4??????????3??Trout?Harper?Hosmer??5??Teheran?BI????????????68?69???Zack Cox?Carlos Martinez?BI????????????????????Martinez?????????????????????????????????????????????????????Oscar Taveras? [...]

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    Rich, I kind of agree, but I have to see it through the end. Can’t just stop mid-way through. And I’m one man, thoroughly researching and scouting all players that could conceivably rank within the top-15 prospects of their organization, writing 60 articles for 30 teams, each article containing between 3,000 and 5,000 words apiece. Plus having to create all the graphics (which is tedious), and fill out each player’s biographical data (also tedious). So give me a break.

    The actual scouting reports are based on updated information. But the fact that most guys were ranked prior to the season, all I did was stay true to their grades and where they ranked on their respective teams. Your way would have certainly been a valid way of doing it. But I decided to do it a different way.

    Lawrie and Rizzo would obviously be higher. Wimmers much lower or not in it at all…I’m sure there are a few others, but I’m blanking off the top of my head. Not a big deal. A lot of this is reflecting on my rankings/grades and how I see them today.

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    True, William. But if I were re-doing the rankings, they’d both definitely be higher than 58 and 59. And who knows? They may cool off, scouts may find flaws in each player’s grade, and the original rankings may be justified.

    I’m a huge fan of Miller, no question about that.

    It was more Chapman’s spring training that crept into the back of my mind. I’m just thinking, there is no way you can give an A- or even a B+ grade and it just seems more and more likely he’s going to end up in the bullpen.

    I actually think Matzek was the guy I most wanted to just continue moving down the list. I eventually came to a point where I said no way I would have had so-and-so rated ahead of Matzek before the season started. But he’s just awful right now.

  • William Munson said:

    The guy you’ve left out is Matthew Adams for Springfield. He’s hitting 1.050 OPS, leading the league in slugging at or near the top in rbi’s, HR’s etc… He jumped from low A to AA and never skipped a beat.

    Psst, he’s only 22 not 24 as you mentioned on the Cards top 15 prospect page. That kid is tearing the cover off the ball and needs some love.

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    Left out of what? The top-100 list? Maybe next year, but noway could you make him a top-100 guy coming into the year.

    I was pretty restricted in how much I could base my rankings off what players have done so far this year because I stayed true to each player’s final grade and ranking within their organization.

    I’m not sure where my head was at when I put in his biographical data…probably had a bunch of pages up and just looked at the wrong one when I was inputing his data in.

    But yes, he’s having a really impressive and surprising season…I’m nitpicking, but I still want him to walk more.

  • William Munson said:

    Yes, more walks would be nice but you kind of have to blame that on AA pitchers. If they get it near the strike zone, he puts serious wood on the ball. Hitting .348/.387/.668/1.056 with nearly twice as many hits as K’s doesn’t suggest there’s a problem.

    No, I thought he should be on your watch list for next year.

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    I’ll be honest…I didn’t know Adams was raking as much as he was until I clicked on his name after viewing a box score in which he had a monster game, and it was after I posted this. Not sure if I would have added him on that list, but I at least would of considered it.

  • William Munson said:

    Roy Oswalt pitched 4 years in the minors before BA figured out he was a top prospect. I’m not sure what it’s going to take for scouts to figure out that Matt Adams is the real deal. His hitting doesn’t slump. His power is unequaled in the Texas League. His outs are screaming line drives. He has a short compact but strong swing. His contact rate is nothing short of phenomenal.

    A NL scout for another team compared Adams to Freddie Freeman but with more raw power.

    I get the low BB rate, but who wants their best hitter to walk when he slugs .640 with a .350 BA?

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    I’ve seen one Springfield game on video (that Miller game), and I plan on viewing a couple of more. He wasn’t up at the plate very long (1 or 2 pitches each at bat) and he looks like he has a very whippy, quick swing though I don’t know for sure since I’m not looking at him from the side. But I gotta figure it’s his position. There are so many first baseman with great numbers in the minors, and he may not have separated himself from the pack.

    With that said, Adams doesn’t have to be a top-100 guy to be the real deal. There are a lot of guys who miss that list who project to be solid everyday players.

  • William Munson said:

    Fair enough:

    Callis had this to say:
    Tim (Pittsburgh, PA): We have been hearing more and more about Goldschmidt, what do you think about STL 1B Matt Adams? Good power numbers in less ABs than Goldschmidt, batting .350, and left handed. Climbing your charts?

    Jim Callis: Adams a legit prospect, not too much different from Goldschmidt as an all-bat 1B who has put up big numbers. As a bonus, like you mention, he’s lefthanded.

    Of course Matt Adams is a year younger and his slugging percentage is .654 vs .629 and BA .350 vs .311. But Goldschmidt walks.


    Taveras, by the way, seems to be fully healthy again as his BA recently has run up to .380. Not bad for a 19 year old in MW league.

    Keith Law has fallen in love with Cardinal pitching:

    He has Miller 3, Martinez 4 and Jenkins 47.

  • William Munson said:

    A scouting report from Future Redbirds:

    “Was at the Springfield game yesterday.. Thought Shelby looked good, a few guys squared him up and had solid hits but for the most part guys were pretty overmatched. The inning he got into trouble, the ump completely boned him; he was painting the corners but not getting the calls and two guys in the inning should have been K’d but they ended up contributing to the two runs.

    Anybody not on the Matt Adams bandwagon needs to jump on quick; he hit two balls to DEEP left center and right center that were both caught right up against the wall-NWA’s ballpark is 400 to those parts with some pretty high walls so he was crushing them but just missed HR’s. I wouldn’t worry about the walks, why walk when you can smack the crap out of every ball you swing at? The ball just sounds different coming off his bat, he hits it so hard it’s crazy. I was really impressed with his athleticism for a big guy too; he looked great at 1B, but what shocked me is he can MOVE for a big guy-almost beat out a chopper up the middle to the SS, it was a bang-bang play. If he can drop some of the baby fat, I honestly think he could play LF. I mean honestly, we won a World Series with Chris Duncan in LF and his bat is nowhere near as good as Adams. Obviously that’s not the ideal scenario but if we resign Pujols then it would be a waste to keep Adams at first and his bat out of the lineup, especially since it’s almost a guarantee we won’t get someone of equal value for him in a trade.”

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    Taveras has been outstanding. He’s not just hitting singles either, he’s showing pretty good power in a good pitcher’s league.

    Goldschmidt vs. Adams, I’d probably take Goldschmidt. A little more raw power. Better plate discipline, less reliant on batting average, which is one of Adams’ biggest strengths. But my judgements on each this year are mostly on stats. I’m still looking to get a more in-depth at both though.

    And yes, Goldschmidt has moved up, though I actually ranked him 8th or so Arizona’s top list. He wasn’t as far down my list as other people might have had him.

    I’m right there with Keith Law on Cardinal pitching. Already had Miller at 4…Martinez’ raw stuff actually impressed me more than Miller’s in the Futures Game. Jenkins is also looking like a legit front of the rotation guy, I agree. And they have a bunch of really good arms to supplement that big three I think.

  • William Munson said:

    It’s a tough call Goldschmidt vs Adams… Goldschmidt hits more HR’s (rate .0803/AB vs .0752) but Adams hits more 2B’s (.0565/AB vs .0645).
    Goldschmidt does walk more so his OBP is higher .423 vs .395. But Adams slugging is .640 vs Gold .616. Gold’s K rate/AB is 24.7% vice 20% for Adams. So when one mentions plate discipline understand that results in about 5% more K’s.

    I question somewhat the value of OBP for a clean-up hitter. He’s the guy you generally want putting the wood on the ball w/risp.

    What is most impressive about Matt Adams is his consistency. It seems a prolongued slump for him is a 1 for 5 night.

    Yes, Taveras was 18 when the season started and has somehow managed a nearly .400 BA and 1.000 OPS. What has hurt him, on the world stage, was a hamstring injury and then returning too soon. It would have been nice to see an unimpeded entire season. I wonder if all of it would have been in QC. Still, he beats out infield hits, fields well and has an excellent arm. When he’s thru growing he should fill out nicely and develop even more power. Gonna be fun watching him.

    Yeah, the arms are exciting and moving up nicely. I still like Swagerty, Rosenthal, Whiting, Siegrist, Cleto, and am really impressed with Keith Butler. Hopefully one day the parent club won’t be forced to conduct continuous raiding parties. Real disappointed in Blair’s complete lack of control.

  • William Munson said:

    I just read that Adams has a 159 wRC+ in the Texas League which, if I understand correctly, suggests that he’s nearly 60% better than average compared to other AA players — that’s a park and league adjusted stat. I’m sure Godschmidt’s is impressive too. Do you know what it is Alex?

  • Alex Eisenberg (author) said:

    Yeah, Blair has been the only real disappointment so far…you didn’t even mention Joe Kelly who’s had a nice year, too.

    A bunch of sabetmetric stats for both…

    Goldschmidt – 175 wRC+, .449 wOBA, 182 OPS+

    Adams – 156 wRC+, .426 wOBA, 163 OPS+

    I disagree about OBP…the higher it is, the better your team is for everyone up and down the line-up. The only way I could maybe buy that it would hurt you is if it’s causing you to strike out so much that you are really costing your team runs.

    I’ve decided to grab a bunch of Adams at bats, as well as other Springfield guys (Cox, etc) and do a full breakdown on the hitters, so be on the lookout for it. I’ll get to see his defense in the process as well.