Toronto Blue Jays Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 6 – 15

For an overview of the process used to grade players, the factors used to determine where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the start of the season. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me or you can make a comment below at the bottom of the page.

You can find a full listing of each team’s top prospect list in the Top Prospect List Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team’s best fan sites. We round out the Toronto Blue Jays and the AL East…

Also See: Toronto Blue Jays, Prospects 1 – 5

6. Justin Jackson | SS | B – R | Low-A Lansing | Age – 20 | Drafted – Round 1(A), 2007

Player Grades
Contact – 30 Now | 40 Future
Power – 35 | 50
Discipline – 35 | 45
Speed – 55 | 50
Defense – 50 | 60
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 45 | 55
ETA – Early 2012
Final Grade – B-

Body Type – long and athletic with some projection

Scouting Report

Jackson is a very raw player that strikes out a ton with a long swing that doesn’t hit for much power though his power is developing.

On the plus side, Jackson was very young for his level (19), and did show some pop in a pitcher’s league. Jackson outperformed his teammates who were of a similar age and entered professional ball in the same draft class. Two things will give Jackson an edge over players with similar profiles:

1. The fact that he plays shortstop and plays it well

2. The propensity to walk and get on base

While the high number of K’s will limit his batting average, the number of walks should give Jackson a respectable OBP.

Jackson shows good footwork and true actions at shortstop and projects to be an above average to plus fielder when all is said and done. He made a spectacular play in the Midwest League All-Star game which I was going to describe, but remembered…why not just show it? In case you can’t see the ball as it travels through the air, the throw hits the first baseman square in the glove and could have traveled maybe 15 more feet before hitting the ground.

Best Case Outcome – Above average shortstop (average offensively, above average – plus defensively)

More Likely Outcome – Average shortstop

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7. Kevin Ahrens | 3b | B – B | Single-A Lansing | Age – 20 | Drafted – Round 1 (16), 2007

Player Grades
Contact – 35 Now | 45 Future
Power – 35 | 50
Discipline – 35 | 50
Speed – 45 | 40
Defense – 55 | 60
Arm – 65 | 65
Instincts – 45 | 55
ETA – 2012
Final Grade – C+

Body Type – athletic and projectable

Scouting Report

Ahrens is another young hitter that struggled when challenged against higher competition before he was probably ready. At the height of his struggles was his propensity to strike out. Ahrens struck out in 26.3% of his plate appearances.

Considering how badly Ahrens struggled in his debut season in 2007 in the Gulf Coast League, the fact that he put up a better OPS in full-season ball has to be considered progress.

A switch hitter, Ahrens made significant strides batting left handed, which was surprising considering he’s a natural righty. This progression was countered by the fact that his production regressed from the right side. His swing from the left side is still on the long side and he’ll have to continue to work on shortening his swing.

Like Jackson, Ahrens sported a solid walk rate and did have a fairly sound approach at the plate. What was most disappointing about Ahrens was the lack of power. Ahrens swing isn’t exactly suited for big-time power, but it should be at least suited toward average power. I’m not exactly sure what the issue with Ahrens was.

Defensively, Ahrens has solid range, a strong arm, and is not at risk to move off the position.

Best Case Outcome – His ultimate upside would probably be an above average everyday third baseman, but that seems to be a stretch at the moment

More Likely Outcome – I think it’s a little too soon to say, but he’s more likely to be an average everyday third baseman. We’ll have a better idea of what to expect from Ahrens after next season…I could also see him playing a utility role down the line

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8. Marc Rzepczynski | LHP | Single-A Lansing | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 5, 2007

Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 55 Future
Curveball – 40 | 45
Slider – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 40 | 50
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 45 | 50
Pitchability – 50 | 55
ETA – Mid-2011
Final Grade – C+

Body Type – solid, durable build

Stuff

Fastball – mostly in the 89 – 92 range, touching 93…the pitch sinks with some natural lefty movement

Change-Up – shows good feel for the pitch…clocked between 83 and 85…needs to work on maintaining his arm speed

Curveball – 12-to-7 version and more of the power variety

Slider – effective against lefties and thrown in the low – mid 80′s

Scouting Report

Rzepcynski works down in the strike zone, generating a very healthy GB% of 67. He didn’t give up a homerun his entire senior season in college and has given up just four homeruns as a professional (166.2 IP total). He gave up two homeruns in 121 innings last year.

He combined his ground ball tendencies with the ability to miss bats (25.3 K%). Rzepcynski’s control/command is OK, but needs work, particularly on locating his off-speed stuff.

Rzepcynski was a little old for his level, so he needs to prove himself against higher levels of competition, but he looks like a solid sleeper prospect for the Jays.

Best Case Outcome – Strong No. 4 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 5 starter…he would also profile pretty well in a relief role.

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9. Eric Thames | LF | B – L | N/A | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 7, 2008

Player Grades
Contact – 40 Now | 50 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 40 | 50
Speed – 45 | 45
Defense – 45 | 50
Arm – 45 | 45
Instincts – 50 | 55
ETA – 2012
Final Grade – C+

Body Type – Short, but with a muscular build

Scouting Report

Thames has a little bit of Gary Sheffield in him. The goatee, the heavy arm armor, the flicking of the bat back-and-forth as he waits for the pitcher to wind-up and release. Also like Sheffield, Thames swings hard, with purpose.

The video on Thames didn’t leave me with a real good game swing to look at. In the above clip, it appears to me that Thames is drifting somewhat. His body is still moving forward as he begins his swing and he ends up a little too much on his front side. Thames’ best hitting attribute is his ability to generate excellent bat speed. Because of the intent and aggressiveness in which he swings with, he has a tendency to over-swing, making him susceptible to breaking pitches.

Thames’ raw power is impressive and he has the potential to hit for both average and power.

Outside of his bat, Thames doesn’t offer much, but he’s not a huge liability in any area. His arm strength–considered below average–is his biggest weakness. He has average speed, but has shown good instincts on the base paths and he’s capable in left field with average range.

Best Case Outcome – Slightly above average everyday left fielder

More Likely Outcome – Average everyday left fielder or maybe a fourth outfielder type that plays against right handed pitchers

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10. Ricky Romero | LHP | Triple-A Syracuse | Age – 24 | Drafted – Round 1 (6), 2005

Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 50 Future
Curveball – 50 | 50
Slider – 45 | 50
Change-Up – 55 | 55
Control – 45 | 50
Command – 40 | 45
Pitchability – 45 | 50
ETA – 2009
Final Grade – C+

Body Type – athletic

Stuff

Fastball – in the start I saw, he was throwing an 88 – 91 mph two-seam fastball that he would keep down in the zone and was able to spot to both sides of the plate at times…fairly straight. He also throws a four-seam fastball as well, but in this start he didn’t feature it much. The four-seamer is thrown with a bit more velocity and movement, but he doesn’t command it as well.

Curveball – can be anywhere from below average to above average…gets loopy at times

Slider – also rates as anywhere from below average to above average…somewhat slurvy…he’s able to throw it for strikes, but it gets hammered when he leaves it over the plate.

Change-Up – didn’t use the change-up much in the start I saw, but it’s described as an above average pitch

Scouting Report

Romero features a wide array of pitches, but he struggles with consistency. His stuff isn’t good enough where he can consistently miss his spots and his control has regressed the past couple years. This isn’t the case of a guy being effectively wild. It’s a case of a guy missing his spot by a few inches and often paying the price for it when he does. When his control falters, Romero becomes much more hittable.

Romero did salvage his 2008 season with a strong 46 innings in Triple-A Syracuse. His command was still an issue but his K-rate bounced back and his GB% remained solid.

Romero risks tipping off his pitches because he changes arm slots depending on the pitch he throws. He uses a low 3/4 slot when throwing a fastball and a high 3/4 slot when throwing his breaking ball. He attempts to mask this by occasionally using a higher arm slot when throwing his fastball. Below you can see Romero throwing his curveball (right) and fastball (left). I pause each clip at release. Notice the different arm slots. The curveball was one of the best ones Romero threw in this particular start.

Best Case Outcome – Borderline No. 4 starter

More Likely Outcome – No. 5 starter or a role out of the bullpen

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11. Brad Emaus | 2b | B – R | A+ Dunedin | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 11, 2007

Emaus bounced back from a disappointing 2007 debut season by putting up strong numbers in 2008, at two levels higher than where he played in 2007. In A+ Dunedin, Emaus posted an .842 OPS, doubled his power output, significantly lowered his K%, raised his BB%, and made consistently harder contact. Emaus’ maintains a short swing, but his hips will occasionally open too soon and he’ll shift his weight too much on his front side. Defensively, Emaus is shore-handed with a solid arm, but his range rates only as average. He’s not a high upside player, but could potentially be an average everyday second baseman when all is said and done.

Grade – C+
ETA – Late 2010

12. Scott Campbell | 2b | B – R | New Hampshire (AA) | Age – 24 | Drafted – 2006

Campbell is a lot like Emaus: same position, drafted in similar spots, high OBP, high contact, and moderate power. What’s interesting is that both hitters have a reverse-platoon split. Both are right handed hitters and both hit right handed pitchers much better than lefties. Campbell is a little older than Emaus, but played at a level higher. His upside is slightly lower than Emaus’ because he doesn’t have as much pop in his bat. Campbell will likely find himself as a high OBP utility guy.

Grade – C+
ETA – Late 2009

13. Andrew Liebel | RHP | Auburn (SS) | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 3 (95), 2008

Liebel has four pitches he can throw for strikes, isn’t overpowering, and profiles as a No. 4 starter at best. His stuff plays up because of his command and “pitchability” factor.

At 5-foot-11, he’s undersized, but on film he looks taller which I attribute to his long arms and him standing upright through much of his wind-up. Liebel comes from a high 3/4 arm slot and generates solid-average velocity on his fastball with good arm speed. His pitches come in on a similar plane, but none grade out as much more than average at this point.

Grade – C
ETA – Late 2011

14. John Tolisano | 2b | B – B | Age – 20 | Drafted – Round 2 (85), 2007

Tolisano was another of the young players casted to the Midwest League last year that ended up struggling. In his brief two professionals seasons, Tolisano hasn’t shown the ability to make consistent, hard contact and he’s displayed just average bat speed. He’s a switch hitter and is more proficient from the left side. Tolisano’s raw power is average…maybe a tick above and he often hits the ball in the air, which will naturally lead to more home runs. Tolisano is more than willing to take a walk, but will need to cut down on the strikeouts. He’s viewed as nothing more than average defensively, so he’ll need to pick up the production with his bat to truly have value. Tolisano’s upside is that of an average everyday second baseman.

Grade – C
ETA – Late 2012

15. Brian Jeroloman | C | B – L | Triple-A Syracuse | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 6, 2006

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Honorable Mentions (in no particular order): Joel Carreno, Luis Perez, Balbino Fuenmayor, Markus Brisker, Edgar Estanga, Tim Collins, Jonathan Talley, Zach Dials, Marcus Walden, Moises Sierra, Davis Romero, Robert Bell, Eric Eiland, Mike MacDonald, Kenny Wilson, Balbino Fuenmayor, Tyler Pastronicky, Kyle Ginley

Also See: Toronto Blue Jays Team Page

Up Next: Chicago Cubs, Prospects 1 – 5

Other references used for this article: First Inning and Minor League Splits

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