Toronto Blue Jays Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 1 – 5
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You can find a full listing of each team’s top prospect list in the Top Prospect List Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team’s best fan sites. We round up the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays…
Also See: Toronto Blue Jays, Prospects 6 – 15
1. Travis Snider | RF | B – L | MLB | Age – 21 | Drafted – Round 1 (14), 2006
Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 50 Future
Power – 55 | 65
Discipline – 50 | 60
Speed – 40 | 35
Defense – 45 | 50
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 50 | 60
ETA – 2009
Final Grade – A-
Body Type – stocky yet powerful build with a strong and heavy lower half…will have to watch his weight down the line
Scouting Report
Snider is blessed with plus raw power to all fields and a discernible batting eye at the plate. His approach is extremely advanced for his age and should only improve with experience.
*Credit to MLB Advanced Media
At the plate, Snider uses an open stance and starts with his front foot on its toes. He’ll then move his front foot back and tap, using this as his timing mechanicsm. This is something he didn’t use prior to the 08′ season. After this toe tap, Snider plants forcefully, creating a generous amount of torque. He rotates on a firm front leg, letting the ball travel deep into his hitting zone. His swing will get a touch too long at times, but that’s not a major concern.
Snider’s swing plane will result in plenty of fly balls, which will mean more extra base hits. He swings with intent, which will often lead to swings-and-misses, but when contact is made, the ball has the potential to go a long way.
Snider will be unlikely to hit for too high an average out of the gate. He’ll let himself get behind in the count by letting many good pitches go by, waiting for the perfect pitch. He also has to work on his struggles against left handed pitchers, particularly on breaking balls, which he has a tendency to whiff at.
Defense – Adequate range with a strong throwing arm…he’s more athletic than people give him credit for
Best Case Outcome – Top-3 offensive right fielder
More Likely Outcome – Top-5 offensive right fielder
2. Brett Cecil | LHP | Triple-A Syracuse | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 1A (38), 2007
Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 55 Future
Slider – 60 | 60
Curveball – 40 | 45
Change-Up – 40 | 45
Control – 50 | 55
Command – 50 | 55
Pitchability – 50 | 50
ETA – Mid-2009
Final Grade – B/B+
Body Type – durable build
Scouting Report
Fastball – sits at 91 or 92, getting to as high as 94. A heavy pitch that induces a lot of ground balls. He also has a four-seamer.
Slider – sharp biting mid-80′s pitch that is very tough on left handers. He can get it to act more like a cutter when he throws it with a higher velocity.
Curveball – slower of the two breaking pitches, not much more than a show-me pitch
Change-Up – another still developing pitch that he’s improved on over the past year…didn’t need it as a reliever at Maryland, so he hasn’t been throwing the pitch very long…should improve with experience
Scouting Report
Cecil is still working to build up his endurance as a starter. He rarely made it into the 6th inning last year and when he did, the quality of his stuff would dip slightly. He’s shown the ability to get out both left handed and right handed pitchers and works well from both the stretch and wind-up.
Apparently, the Jays have worked with Cecil to better hide throughout his delivery and make his release point harder to pick up (Source: Baseball America).
From a peripheral standpoint, Cecil combines the ability to miss bats and generate ground balls with solid control. You really can’t ask for much else.
Best Case Outcome – Strong No. 3 starter–depending on the defense behind him, you could see his numbers play up to No. 2 starter level
More Likely Outcome – Borderline No. 3 or strong No. 4 starter
3. David Cooper | 1b | B – L | A+ Dunedin | Age – 22 | Drafted – Round 1 (17), 2008
Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 55 Future
Power – 50 | 55
Discipline – 50 | 60
Speed – 35 | 35
Defense – 40 | 45
Arm – 50 | 50
Instincts – 55 | 60
ETA – Mid-2011
Final Grade – B
You can see my scouting report on Cooper by clicking here. I was impressed by how he tore through two levels and more than held his own in A+ Dunedin. He’s got a pretty swing and his production will play-up because of his advanced approach and plus batting eye. He’s limited solely to first base or DH and he won’t be a star at the position, but he’s a good bet to at least be an average regular or in a worst case scenario, the left-hand side of a platoon — his lefty/right splits in both college and his brief professional debut were huge as he was much better against right handed hitters.
Best Case Outcome – Above average everyday first baseman, though I think he’s a guy you give a night off to if you’re facing a real tough lefty.
More Likely Outcome – Slightly above average everyday first baseman–not much difference between best case and likely.
4. J.P. Arencibia | C | B – R | New Hampshire (AA) | Age – 23 | Drafted – Round 1, 2007
Player Grades
Contact – 40 Now | 45 Future
Power – 55 | 60
Discipline – 35 | 40
Speed – 35 | 30
Defense – 50 | 55
Arm – 55 | 55
Instincts – 50 | 55
ETA – Mid-Late 2010
Final Grade – B/B-
Body Type – Strong build, not a great athlete, but for a catcher he’s solid
Scouting Report
Arencibia’s biggest weakness is a complete lack of patience at the plate. His BB% has dropped from 5.6 to 4.2 to 2.5 at three levels in two years. This might be more acceptable if he was a high contact hitter, but he’s not really a high contact hitter.
*Credit to Minor League Baseball
Arencibia’s power is impressive. He’s built like a bull and has a ton of raw strength. He lets the ball travel deep into his hitting zone (usually) as he turns the hands and hips together. His swing plane is conducive to fly balls, with a slight uppercut, so he should put up some solid power numbers. His swing will get long at times, so he’ll need to work on shortening it.
Defensively, there are no questions about Arencibia staying at catcher. His arm is strong and he’s improved both his game calling and blocking skills at the plate.
Something that needs to be monitored: the lefty/right split. Arencibia has hit lefties at a much more prolific rate since at least his junior season in college. The difference between the splits of Cooper and Arencibia is that Arencibia’s sample size is a lot bigger, though still small overall. Also, the splits will have more of an impact on Arencibia in that over 500 ABs usually come from pitchers throwing from the right side.
Best Case Outcome – Slightly above average everyday catcher
More Likely Outcome – Average everyday catcher…worst case is that he doesn’t hit right handed hitters well enough to play against them everyday
5. Brad Mills | LHP | Double-A New Hampshire | Age – 24 | Drafted – Round 4, 2007
Player Grades
Fastball – 50 Now | 50 Future
Curveball – 50 | 55
Change-Up – 60 | 60
Control – 45 | 55
Command – 50 | 50
Pitchability – 60 | 60
ETA – Late 2009
Final Grade – B-
Body Type – relatively small left hander
Stuff
Fastball – sits in the upper 80′s, occasionally touching 91…plays up a bit because of his deceptive wind-up…needs to work on keeping the pitch down in the strike zone
Curveball – sharp biting pitch in the mid-upper 70′s
Change-Up – his best pitch, Mills’ change-up sits in the low 80′s resulting in a difference between 5 – 10 mph compared to his fastball. The pitch will both fade and tumble. He maintains his arm speed when throwing the pitch and combined with his delivery, the pitch gives hitters–particularly right handed ones–a whole mess of trouble.
Scouting Report
I’ve liked Mills for a while now even though he’s not my typical type of pitcher (I usually like pitchers with more power-oriented stuff). Each of his pitches comes from the same high 3/4 arm slot, making it very difficult for hitters to get a sense of what’s coming.
*Credit to Gerry McDonald (click through for more video) and to the MLB Scouting Bureau
As mentioned earlier, Mills’ mechanics are deceptive. He works quickly and he employs an exaggerated shoulder tilt. The angles are different, but it appears his tilt is larger than the one he employed in college (which is on the right). You can see in the clip above the glove is more positioned to the side. While he does maintain a firm glove, I would rather it be more out in front of the chest. By maintaining a firm glove out in front of the chest, the pitcher has an easier time keeping the front shoulder closed and is able to achieve better extension out in front.
Other Notes – Mills, with a degree in Civil Engineering, is an extremely intelligent individual and his book smarts carry over to the pitcher’s mound.
Best Case Outcome – Strong No. 4 starter
More Likely Outcome – Borderline No. 4 starter or a strong No. 5 starter…worst case for Mills is a move to the bullpen. I’m confident he will find some roll to play as a major leaguer
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Also See: Toronto Blue Jays Team Page
Up Next: Toronto Blue Jays, Prospects 6 – 15
Other references used for this article: First Inning, Minor League Splits, College Splits
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