Trade Round Up
ALSO SEE – Dan Haren to the Angels: Trade Breakdown
Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar
Roy Oswalt has been a model of consistency his entire career, hardly showing any level of decline. You could say he fell off a little after his 2004 season, but he’s been steady ever since.
If anything, it seems Oswalt has had a bit of an uptick the past couple years. His current K-rate is the best its been since his rookie season in 2001. His fastball velocity for the second consecutive year is at 93 mph, which comes after three straight years of a fastball velocity a little below that 93 mph mark.
Where Oswalt has changed as a pitcher is his workload. His total innings have dropped every year since 2005. So while you’re still getting a front of the rotation starter, he’s not going to give you the innings of a guy like C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, or even a Dan Haren. However, I’m not sure the Phillies needed that kind of guy since they already have Halladay who acts as their workhorse.
As for who the Astros received in return:
J.A. Happ
I’m not a big J.A. Happ fan. I applaud him for what he’s accomplished thus far at the MLB level and his ERA is a sparkling 3.11 ERA in 217 innings across four seasons. However, he’s accomplished that ERA with mostly smoke-and-mirrors. His MLB BABIP is .273, which flies in the face of his minor league BABIP rates. Since 2007, Happ has had a minor league BABIP range anywhere between .317 to .353. Happ’s LOB% of 84.4 percent is extremely high and is not something he has control over. He’ll eventually regress back to the mean.
That said, Happ does have back of the rotation starter potential.
Anthony Gose
I’m not as high on Anthony Gose as others are. He’s a tremendous athlete obviously and he has an intriguing collection of tools. However, he’s extremely raw as a hitter, not walking enough to profile as a lead off type and striking out too much to allow his average to make up for his low walk percentage. Not to mention, Gose hasn’t shown any power production thus far in his career, though I believe he does have a little bit in the tank.
Gose’s best asset is his speed, his arm, and his defense, which all grade out as plus or better. However, his base running has been atrocious this year with an extremely poor stolen base percentage.
Jonathan Villar
Like Gose, Jonathan Villar is extremely raw as a hitter, probably moreso than Gose. He strikes out way too much for somebody with so little power and so few walks. He has potential at the plate, but his pitch recognition must improve and he’ll need to shorten his swing as well. A switch hitter, Villar also must show better consistency in repeating his swing.
The Astros also sent the Phillies $11 million to help cover Oswalt’s contract. I wasn’t impressed by the return the Astros received from the Phillies, but I did like the spinoff off of Gose to the Blue Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace.
Wallace is an MLB-ready first baseman. I’ve made my concerns about his plate discipline known, but it can’t be debated that Wallace can flat out hit and I know he has more discipline at the plate than he’s shown the past two years. In any case, Wallace is a much safer bet to offer at least some value at the Major League level than Gose is.
Even with Wallace included in the deal, I still like it from the Philly’s perspective since they really didn’t have to give up much. I do understand the Astros were probably limited in their options because of Oswalt’s contract and no-trade clause.
I’m now reading that a Lance Berkman deal to the Yankees is near completion. I’ll have more on my thoughts about that later.
Here are some reactions to this deal…
Some thoughts on a few other deals made as the Trade Deadline approaches…
Miguel Tejada to the Padres for Wynn Pelzer
I think the Orioles made out very well in moving Miguel Tejada for Wynn Pelzer. The Padres get a declining 36-year old 2-month rental with a .670 OPS. Tejada will likely play some third base and shortstop. The Orioles in exchange get a much needed power arm to put into their system. Pelzer figures to possibly be in line for a spot in the bullpen at some point in 2011.
While Pelzer has command issues, he’s shown an ability to throw strikes over an extended period of time. His control has mainly deserted him for the past two months as his BB% in April and May as a starter were 7.1% and 6.7%, respectively. He’s a guy with good stuff — two above average to plus pitches — who profiles best out of the bullpen.
Here is Geoff Young’s reaction to the deal…
Scott Podsednick from the Royals to the Dodgers for Elisaul Pimentel and Lucas May
From the Dodgers perspective, they get a speedy outfielder with moderate on-base skills and very limited power. They give up a potential back-up catcher with good power, but questionable plate discipline and an intriguing pitcher in Low-A in Pimentel.
I’ve gotten to see Pimentel a lot this year. The Royals get a slim-framed pitcher with some projection remaining though he doesn’t really have the frame to really fill out. His fastball sits between 88 – 93 mph and he complements it with an above average change-up, a quality cutter, and a fringy breaking ball that has average potential. Pimentel has good control, but his command can be spotty. Still, in exchange for a 34 year old fourth outfielder, May and Pimentel is a real nice haul.
Matt Capps from the Nationals to the Twins for Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa
An excellent trade for Washington, getting Wilson Ramos while his value is basically at his lowest. Ramos is better than what he’s shown so far in 2010 even though his offensive ability has probably been overstated by talent evaluators.
Edwin Jackson to the White Sox for Dan Hudson and David Holmberg
Finally a Diamondback trade I can get behind. Edwin Jackson has had an erratic year as his command has regressed somewhere between what he was in 2007 and 2008. However, he still has great stuff and White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper has a good reputation with pitcher turnarounds.
Going to Arizona is Dan Hudson, who projects as a borderline middle of the rotation starter. In his big league appearances, Hudson has struggled with his command, but he’s done a pretty decent job of missing bats. If starting doesn’t work out, he can easily be moved to the bullpen in a multi-inning role.
As for David Holmberg, I had a chance to watch one of his recent starts — it was one of his better starts this season. However, overall, Holmberg has been a mild disappointment so far this year as his strikeout rate has been rather middling. He does have an assortment of useable pitches, including a big breaking curveball and an above average change-up. He’s a big body pitcher without a lot of projection, so the improvement in his velocity will likely have to come from more efficient mechanics. Holmberg is a potential back of the rotation starter.
