Washington Nationals Top-15 Prospects of 2010, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Nationals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2010 Prospect Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify for this list. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2010. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2009. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

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Player Grades
Fastball – 80 Now | 80 Future
Curveball – 70 | 70
Change-Up – 55 | 60
Control – 55 | 65
Command – 60 | 70
Pitchability – 55 | 65
ETA – 2010
Final Grade – A

Body Type – Ideal pitcher’s frame…athletic

Stuff

Fastball – Stephen Strasburg predominantly relies on a 96 – 100 mph fastball with excellent life and carry through the strike zone. Strasburg can manipulate his fastball to look like a multitude of different offerings. The pitch will cut, run, and sink and its velocity will range anywhere from 91 – 101 at its peak. The movement and velocity a fastball possesses all depends on what Strasburg is looking to accomplish with a particular pitch.

What brings everything together is that Strasburg commands his fastball extremely well to all quadrants of the strike zone.

Curveball – A tight and late breaking pitch clocked in the low-mid 80′s. It plays up because of the velocity on his fastball and you consistently see the knees of hitters buckle. It’s not a straight up 12-to-6 curveball because it does possess some lateral movement.

Making the pitch even more lethal, it comes from the same arm slot and plane as his fastball. The clips below are from 2008, but they still hold true today and they best exemplify exactly how tough it is to hit Strasburg when he’s on.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Change-Up – He hardly uses it, but it’s seen by scouts as an above average pitch with plus potential.

Strasburg is able to throw all his offerings for strikes and while he can get away with more mistakes because of the velocity on his fastball, he does need to be more consistent in keeping his fastball out of the middle of the plate.

Mechanics

For a guy that throws as hard as he does, Strasburg’s delivery is rather smooth, simple, and under control. Rhythm is extremely important in pitching and Strasburg has it. He repeats his delivery with ease, but because he throws as hard as he does, his injury risk is naturally going to be higher.

*Credit to MLB Advanced Media

Strasburg’s mechanics are compact and he comes to an athletic position centered around his core near the peak of his leg lift. Before striding forward, Strasburg breaks his hands and his arms spread like a bird spreads its wings. He leads with his hips and keeps his upper body back by dipping his back shoulder.

Strasburg takes a huge stride toward home plate and generates tremendous arm speed using a whip-like arm action in addition to throwing with major intent. Strasburg’s arm is a little late, possibly increasing the load on his shoulder, but that is sometimes the tradeoff a pitcher makes to throw as hard as Strasburg does.

Strasburg pitched and faired well against pro hitters when he appeared in the Arizona Fall League. I’m not sure where the Nationals plan to start Strasburg though he’s a long shot to make the Major League roster from the outset. However, don’t be surprised if he becomes a mainstay in the middle of the Nationals’ rotation by the end of 2010.

Best Case Outcome – Hall-of-Famer, No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – Your basic No. 1 starter…health is likely the only thing between Strasburg and greatness

Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 55 | 60
Discipline – 55 | 65
Speed – 35 | 35
Defense – 40 | 50/55
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – Late 2013
Final Grade – B+

Body Type – Stocky

Scouting Report

Derek Norris may be one of the best prospects you’ve never heard of. The catcher has an advanced feel for the strike zone and excellent plate discipline to go along with good power to all fields.

Norris lays off pitches out of the strike zone and is generally able to recognize pitches off all types though you can get him to chase with two strikes. He’ll hammer mistakes, particularly mistakes up in the zone.

The true value of Norris is his ability to play catcher. Should he stay at the position, he has the offense to be a potential All Star.

Norris only started playing catcher as a senior in high school, so he’s understandably pretty raw at the position. However, he has some of the tools that can’t be taught. For instance, his release is quick and his arm is strong and accurate. Norris threw out 47% of runners in 2008 and while that figure dropped in 2009, 36% still is a solid percentage.

The big issue for Norris is to improve his focus and concentration as he’s prone to lapses at times. He has to work on blocking balls in the dirt and his actual receiving skills. The rate of wild pitches and passed balls against Norris decreased last year, but still has a way to go to being at an acceptable level.

Norris is a below average runner, but not a bad athlete for his body type and size.

Best Case Outcome – All Star level catcher with average defense

More Likely Outcome – Above average catcher…his bat would still play at first should he move off catcher, but he’d lose a lot of his value.

Brief Notes on Prospects 3 – 5

3. Drew Storen | RHP | Grade – B – One of the best relief prospects in baseball, should be up at some point during the 2010 season

4. Danny Espinosa | SS | Grade – B/B- – Solid prospect with a nice blend of power and patience that isn’t prevalent among many of the current shortstop prospects in baseball

5. Ian Desmond | SS/2b | Grade – B- – Ranked a little behind Espinosa because he doesn’t have the patience or power potential of Espinosa nor is he as good defensively…be wary of last season’s numbers because of a very inflated BABIP

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UP NEXT – Washington Nationals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning and Minor League Splits