Washington Nationals Top Prospects of 2011, No’s 1 – 5

ALSO SEE – Nationals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2011 Top Prospect List Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy.

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Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs to qualify for this list. Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings to qualify. Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings to qualify. Ages are listed as of May 1st, 2011. Levels are based on the highest level in which a prospect played in 2010. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts.

Prospects 1 and 6 are available for everyone to read. All other scouting reports can be accessed by Premium Members only.

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Quick Rundown on Prospects 1 – 5

1. Bryce Harper | RF | Age – 18 | Grade – A- … See the in-depth report on Harper below

2. Derek Norris | C | Age – 22 | Grade – B+ … Hand injury sapped Norris of much of his power, but it gradually returned as the year progressed…on base machine, but he needs to make more contact.

3. A.J. Cole | RHP | Age – 19 | Grade – B- … Lot of projection and upside for this thin, but projectable right hander.

4. Wilson Ramos | C | Age – 23 | Grade – B- … Had a disappointing 2010, but some mechanical adjustments to his swing, which I detail in his report, might suggest a much better 2011…

5. Sammy Solis | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B- … Doesn’t offer a great deal of upside, but he’s an advanced pitcher witha deep repertoire of pitches who could move quickly through the organization…

*Stephen Strasburg, Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen, Ian Desmond, and Luis Atilano are no longer considered prospects based on the criteria set forth for these lists.

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Player Grades
Contact – 45 Now | 55 Future
Power – 60 | 75
Discipline – 50 | 65
Speed – 55 | 55
Defense – 45 | 55
Arm – 60 | 60
Instincts – 50 | 60
ETA – Late 2013
Final Grade – A-

Body Type – He’s already filled out a good bit for somebody his age, but he’s not done growing and will get stronger in the coming years.

Scouting Report

By now, almost every baseball fan is familiar with Bryce Harper. He was the No. 1 pick of the 2010 draft, selected by the Washington Nationals out of the College of Southern Nevada. He dropped out of his last year of high school to get a head start on his professional baseball career. And you’d be hard pressed to say he made the wrong decision.

Harper is best known for his tremendous power. He started to become a household name in early 2009, where word spread from the International Power Showcase High School Home Run Derby in Florida, that a participant hit a 502 foot home run. He also appeared on the cover of “Sports Illustrated”. The rest is history.

Harper has a swing where it’s easy to identify different power-generating mechanisms. But before I get to his swing, let’s go over what makes Harper a special talent, because a swing conducive power is only good if you have the tools to make it work — and Harper has those tools.

Harper has incredibly strong hands and tremendous bat speed, aided by quick-twitch muscle fibers in his forearms. Bat speed is the most important indicator of power. In addition, Harper has excellent hand-eye coordination, which allows him to consistently center the ball on the sweet spot of the bat. Now let’s break down Harper’s swing…

The Swing

*Credit to VegasScout

The first noticeable thing for me is his stride. He takes a small step forward. Just before getting up on his toes, he begins to turn his front knee far inward. At the same time, Harper begins loading his hands and shifting his weight forward, gathering momentum. Harper then plants his front foot forcefully, and the front hip aggressively opens, creating a significant amount of torque between his torso and hips.

Harper loads his bat much like a pitcher loads up his arm, with the elbow being loaded horizontally. You can see how he begins to wrap his bat behind him, but comes out of that wrap before starting his swing, enabling him to keep his swing relatively short. As the torso is uncoiled, the arms come with it. The hands and back hip are turned together on a firm front leg, which acts as a base in which to turn on.

You can get a sense for of Harper’s bat speed by taking note of how deep he lets the ball travel into his hitting zone. He explodes on the ball and achieves excellent extension just after contact. I also like the two-handed finish to his swing.

Harper swings with a tremendous amount of intent. He’s able to keep a stable head in spite of that intent, but you can get a feel for it by taking note of the back foot, how the force brings his back foot off the ground entirely.

The intent can get Harper into trouble, however. He’s prone to swinging-and-missing and you can fool him with soft stuff. When he’s fooled, Harper has trouble keeping his body back, which the Nationals have worked with him on. They are trying to get him to be less pull-oriented and to go the other way a little more often.

While Harper will strikeout, he also has a very patient approach at the plate, which will lead to him getting on base often, especially as pitchers begin to pitch around him due to his power.

Defense

Defensively, Harper will move out from behind the plate and into right field, not because he wasn’t a capable backstop, but mainly because the organization wants him to focus on the development of his bat rather than have to deal with the extra pressures and responsibilities of playing catcher. Obviously Harper will need some time to adjust to right field and how to play it…the angles to take, how to read the ball off the bat, etc. However, there is no doubt he has the tools to play the position. His arm grades out as plus and he’s an above average runner as well. He might slow down as he gets older, but not enough to have to move off the position.

There have been some conflicting reports about Harper’s makeup. Some have come across as extremely critical, while others say it’s unfounded. It’s hard for me to judge since I’ve never met the guy. From a distance, I think Harper has that “it” factor. He exudes confidence and seems to have the charisma found in the game’s best players. I’m sure that comes across as cocky to some people. And I’m sure it rubs people the wrong way. However, I also understand he’s an extremely hard worker. My question is how well does he take instruction?

If the decision to play Harper in the AFL is any indication, the organization believes Harper is ready to faced advanced level pitching. They will almost certainly start Harper in Single-A Hagerstown with a chance for a promotion to A+ Potomac if the stop in Hagerstown goes well.

Best Case Outcome – He’s a potential Hall-of-Fame talent who could hit anywhere from 40 – 50 home runs annually.

More Likely Outcome – A little too soon to say, but the strikeouts might put a cap on his batting average.

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UP NEXT – Nationals Top Prospects, No’s 6 – 15

Other References and Resources Used for This Article – First Inning