Washington Nationals Top-15 Prospects of 2012

Grades are based on a prospect’s projected value over the course of his career and how likely it is that prospect will fulfill his projected value. Various factors are accounted for including upside, red flags, actual performance, and closeness to the majors. See the 2012 Top Prospect List Primer for more information as it relates to prospect grading and philosophy. Grades can be subject to change.

TO QUALIFY

Hitters must have 100 or fewer Major League ABs.

Starting pitchers must have 50 or fewer Major League innings.

Relief pitchers must have 25 or fewer Major League innings.

Prospect Quick Takes

1. Bryce Harper | RF | Age – 19 | Grade – A … See his full report below….

2. Anthony Rendon | 3b | Age – 21 | Grade – B+ … 2011 first round pick is an All Star level talent.

3. Alex Meyer | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B … He’s risky, but he has huge upside.

4. Brian Goodwin | OF | Age – 21 | Grade – B- … He’s a good athlete with great patience, but has to round out some rough edges in his game.

5. Matt Purke | LHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B- … Click here for a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of Purke…

6. Sammy Solis | LHP | Age – 23 | Grade – B- … See his full report on page 2

7. Robbie Ray | LHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B-/C+ … Just average stuff, but possesses solid command and control.

8. Destin Hood | OF | Age – 22 | Grade – B-/C+ … Development took a step forward in 2011.

9. Michael Taylor | OF | Age – 21 | Grade – C+ … High upside outfielder must get better plate discipline.

10. Taylor Hill | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – C+ … An aggressive ranking of Hill, but I liked what he showed on film while at Vanderbilt, and think he could develop into a back of the rotation starter.

11. Steve Lombardozzi | UTI | Age – 23 | Grade – C+ … Major League ready utility man.

12. Zach Walters | SS | Age – 22 | Grade – C+ … Athletic infielder acquired at last year’s trade deadline has solid pop, but needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

13. David Freitas | C | Age – 23 | Grade – C+/C … Short on tools, but he’s disciplined at the plate and has come a long way defensively as catcher.

14. Kylin Turnbull | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C … Projectable frame and flashes good stuff…needs more consistency.

15. Matt Skole | 3b | Age – 22 | Grade – C … Power is a question mark, but he shows a good feel for hitting.

HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order) – Tyler Moore (1b) | Neil Holland (RHP) | Bobby Hansen (LHP) | Danny Rosenbaum (LHP) | Robert Gilliam (RHP) | Sandy Leon (C) | Estarlin Martinez (3b) | Blake Kelso (2b) | Manny Rodriguez (RHP) | Carlos Rivero (INF) | Brian Dupra (RHP) | Taylor Jordan (RHP) | Greg Holt (RHP) | Josh Smoker (LHP) | Jason Martinson (SS) | Dixon Anderson (RHP) | Tanner Roark (RHP) | Pat Lehman (RHP) | Aaron Barrett (RHP) | Paul Demny (RHP) | Jeff Kobernus (2b) | Deion Williams (SS) | Eury Perez (CF) | Keven Keyes (OF) | Rick Hague (SS) | Corey Brown (OF) | Erik Davis (RHP) | Wirkin Estevez (RHP) | Blake Monar (LHP)

*Chris Marrero no longer considered a prospect based on the criteria set forth for these lists.

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Player Grades
Contact – 50 Now | 60 Future
Power – 60 | 80
Discipline – 55 | 65
Speed – 55 | 55
Defense – 55/50 | 55/60
Arm – 70 | 70
Instincts – 55 | 65
ETA – Late 2012 or Early 2013
Final Grade – A

Last Year’s Team Ranking – No. 1

Last Year’s Top-100 Ranking – No. 2

Last Year’s Grade – A-

Body Type – Muscular and athletic.

Scouting Report

Expectations couldn’t have been any higher for the most hyped draft prospect this sport has ever scene. And unbelievably, Bryce Harper, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 Major League Draft, actually lived up to those expectations in his first full pro year of baseball.

He destroyed High-A Potomac, prompting a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg, where he held his own at the age of just 18.

There really isn’t much Harper can’t do. He can hit for both average and power. He sees the ball well out of the hands of pitchers and made more contact than scouts expected he would. He was patient and willing to work his way on base via the walk. He’d swing through his fair share of pitches, but he showed no fear hitting with two strikes.

Harper’s approach was much improved compared to when he first came out of high school. Formerly a hitter who loved to pull the baseball, he’s now quite good at working the entire field. In addition, he will cut down his swing when the situation calls for it.

Power is Harper’s calling card. It gets a rare true 80 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has incredibly strong hands and the quick-twitch muscle fibers in his forearms and wrists enable him to generate truly elite bat speed. This bat speed allows Harper to wait on balls until the last possible second before unloading. The extra time allows him to better decipher the pitch’s type and location.

Harper has excellent hand-eye coordination, which helps him to consistently square up on the baseball. But even when he doesn’t center the ball, it still comes off his bat pretty hard.

The Swing

Entering the 2010 draft, Harper had a lot of moving parts to his swing and he still does to a certain extent. However, the Nationals worked with him to simplify his swing and maximize the efficiency of it by eliminating some of the unnecessary noise. You can see his 2009 swing on the left and his 2011 swing on the right:

*Credit to Vegas Scout and to MLB Advanced Media

Less hand movement gave Harper a shorter swing. And the front leg kick/stride was simplified by doing a more standard leg kick where the knee would turn slightly inward before planting. This created tremendous torque between his torso and hips. Both swings still resulted in the bat moving ferociously through the hitting zone.

It’s worth noting that Harper did struggle a little after his promotion to Double-A. He had difficulty with left handed pitching, and he hurt his power production by hitting far more ground balls than he’d like. This was a result of Harper’s swing getting a little out of whack, with his upper body leaking a little too far out in front, lessening the involvement his lower body would have in generating power.

Harper has good instincts and a great feel for the game. This helps him on the base paths where he’s also an above average runner and in right field where he is still learning to play the position. Harper has a cannon for an arm.

Attitude

One thing that gets noticed by scouts is his attitude. Some think it’s a detriment, but a little bit of cockiness is good to have in a player. He exudes a confidence somebody with his talent should exude.

That said, he does have a little growing up to do. He likes to make the spectacular play at times rather than the play he’s supposed to make. As an example, I go back to last year’s Future’s Game where Harper fielded a ball in the far left field corner. Rather than hitting the cut off man, Harper air mailed the throw — impressively I might add — from the outfield warning track over the head of the catcher at home plate. A nice show of arm strength, but he allowed the runners to advance an extra base. Those are incidents that should be avoided.

Still, his teammates really seem to like him. He’s a very hard worker and he hustles. As long as those three things remain true, his attitude won’t be much of an issue for me.

Harper could see his first Major League action late next year.

Best Case Outcome – Hall of Fame type of talent.

More Likely Outcome – Consistent All Star.

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